LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 11, 1:31 AM EDT ...Updated Aviation Discussion...982
FXUS63 KLMK 110531
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
131 AM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.KEY MESSAGES...
* A few stray showers are possible mainly east of I-65 for the rest
of the afternoon. Patchy fog will be possible early Friday
morning.
* Warm and humid conditions continue into the weekend, with
additional shower and storm chances for Saturday and especially
Sunday as a cold front approaches the area. Severe weather is
not expected.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 317 PM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025
Scattered cu field has blossomed over the region this afternoon,
with temps warming into the 80s for most, and low 90s for SDF. A few
isolated pop-up showers are observed by radar, though the lack of
deep layer shear and weak lapse rates have kept convection from
growing. A few more isolated showers are possible this afternoon,
but with no real trigger in place, and the upper shortwave shifting
to our east, coverage will be very localized, and most of the region
will remain dry.
For tonight, less cloud coverage is expected, along with lighter
winds and lingering low level moisture. Patchy fog may develop
before sunrise due to good radiational cooling.
For tomorrow, zonal flow will be centered over the Ohio Valley,
resulting in another day with no strong trigger to fire off
convection. Still can't rule out an isolated chance in the
afternoon, mainly for KY, but coverage should be minimal, and just
about all of the region is expected to remain dry. Temps peak in the
lower 90s tomorrow, with heat indices expected to remain in the
upper 90s.
&&
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 317 PM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025
===== Saturday - Monday =====
Upper level troughing over the central US will support a sfc low to
track across the Great Lakes over the weekend. An associated cold
front will stretch across the Midwest, providing a better forcing
mechanism for increasing precip coverage over the forecast area.
While precip chances exist for Saturday, the overall best chances
will come Sunday afternoon as the front begins to approach the
region. SBCAPE exceeding 200 J/kg will be possible due to sfc
heating temps up to the low 90s, with dewpoints reaching the mid 70s
possible. PWATs nearing 2 inches will be possible leading to heavy
rain and thunderstorm chances. Shear parameters continue to appear
weak and unidirectional in model soundings, so severe weather
chances appear low at this time. Still can't rule out some stronger
storms, capable of strong wind gusts and lightning, but torrential
downpours will be main hazard.
The front may not make it through the forecast area until Monday,
and the upper shortwave may be taking its time to shift east of the
area. This will promote additional PoPs for Monday. With the front
possibly bisecting the CWA, higher rain chances will be focused
south of the KY Parkways.
The warmest temps of the weekend are expected on Saturday, with
highs possibly hitting the mid 90s. With muggy dewpoints in the low
to mid 70s, that should yield heat indices around 100F during Sat
afternoon.
===== Tuesday - Wednesday =====
Brief upper ridging to our south may extend over the lower Ohio
Valley by Tuesday and Wednesday. As mentioned in the prior
discussion, being on the northern periphery of the ridge could
subject us to continued diurnally driven shower and storm chances.
Will continue with a lower confidence forecast for the end of the
period regarding PoPs. However, given the ridging pattern, we may
end up having the warmest temps of the period on Wednesday, with
temps possibly reaching the mid 90s. Will be something to keep an
eye on, as that could yield some heat indices over 100F.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 131 AM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025
Quiet night across the area with dry conditions only a few-sct mid
level clouds at times. Any gradient winds will be light out of the
SSW or SW, but could also see periods of calm. The fog signal isn't
strong enough at the TAF sites to advertise much, but will monitor
obs/trends through the early morning hours. Otherwise, look for
steady SSW to SW winds later today with Sct cumulus developing
around 5-6 k feet through the afternoon. Perhaps a stray shower or t-
storm but coverage/confidence not high enough to include any mention
for direct impact at TAF sites.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CJP
LONG TERM...CJP
AVIATION...BJS
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 11, 1:31 AM EDT ...Updated Aviation Discussion...---------------
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