PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 9, 12:43 PM CDT634
FXUS63 KPAH 091743
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1243 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered showers and thunderstorms today will be more focused across
west KY and southwest IN. Coverage becomes more isolated
Thursday and Friday. Chances increase again this weekend,
particularly Saturday.
- Heat indices on Friday and Saturday near 100 degrees. After slightly
cooler heat indices (mid-upper 90s) on Sunday and Monday, a
return to near 100 degree values are possible Tuesday and
Wednesday.
- Uncertainty exists regarding rain chances early to mid next
week, but potential is there for daily shower and storm
chances to continue.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 210 AM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025
A 500mb trough axis oriented from Northern Indiana to Southern
Illinois will pivot east across the Ohio Valley today. While the
forcing from this feature will primarily be focused east of our cwa
today, the 700-850mb trough axis hangs up further west which may be
enough to initiate convection through the day. This is most likely
across western KY and southwest IN, but can't rule out some isolated
development further north and west. Pwats will be decreasing through
the course of the day from the northwest, but still will be near 2"
across the KY Pennyrile. So can't rule out some localized flooding
issues again.
Deep layer moisture is lower Thursday and Friday and forcing looks
to be limited each day (as the primary shortwave energy remains
north and west). So coverage of convection should be far more
isolated. This should also result in more sunshine, helping to boost
highs back around 90 or a few degrees above. Humidity levels will
remain high, which allows heat index readings to near 100 by Friday.
A northern stream shortwave traversing across the Midwest Friday
into Saturday will allow a cold front to slip south towards our cwa
on Saturday. This will provide an uptick in convection, and pwats
creep back towards 2" allowing some efficient rainfall rates to
occur. There are indications the boundary washes out/stalls out
across/nearby our cwa keeping high pwats in place. Impulses within
the 500mb flow may produce daily shower and storm chances each day
Sunday through mid next week. This is despite the fact that the
upper ridge across the southeast tries to build further north. Thus
the unsettled pattern may remain in place, with the brunt of the
heat positioned to our south. Looks more like typical summer-time
heat and humidity with highs remaining in the upper 80s to low 90s,
dewpoints in the low to mid 70s, and scattered thunderstorm activity
each day. Depending on convective coverage, and resulting cloud
cover, we may see a return of 100 degree heat index readings by
Tuesday.
Longer range signals seem to be indicating a more pronounced
shortwave trough sweeping across the Ohio Valley late next week
which may allow a true cold front to actually make full passage.
This would result in a nice break from the high humidity and may
allow dewpoints to fall into the 60s in the July 18-19 period.
However, this is still 8-10 days out so nothing to get excited about
by any means. It's hard to get a break from the 70+ dewpoints in
July in our area of the country, and models might just be teasing us
with false hope.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025
MVFR conditions will remain possible this afternoon as isolated
to scattered showers and storms push through most of the TAF
sites. The exception will be at MVN, where the risk for showers
and storms is much lower. The most likely to see showers and
storms will be near CGI/PAH (storms nearby) and possibly OWB.
Clearing skies and light winds overnight may result in locally
dense fog with visibility approaching 1/4 mile at PAH/CGI.
Improving conditions expected Thursday.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...
DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION...KC
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 9, 12:43 PM CDT---------------
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