BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 2, 2:36 AM EDT253
FXUS61 KBOX 020636
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
236 AM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Warm but a bit less humid today and Thursday, then drying out with
more seasonable temperatures heading toward Independence Day. An
upper level disturbance may bring scattered showers and
thunderstorms Thursday, otherwise dry through the end of this week.
Heat and humidity return late this weekend into early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Messages...
* Warm today with drier air working in from the north. The best
chance for some showers or thunderstorms is along and adjacent to
the south coast.
As the mid level trough axis slowly shifts east early this morning
we'll continue to see the plume of deepest moisture slowly drop
south. However, the cold front moving into western MA/CT early this
morning will eventually become stationary today, draped across SNE
from SW to NE. This prolongs the time that the deepest moisture
(PWATs still near 2 inches) lingers over the south coast. Cloudcover
remains quite thick much of the day, but northwest MA will be the
first to see increasingly sunny skies this afternoon, expanding
slowly southeast. Meanwhile, low stratus clouds likely linger over
the southeast coast much of the day, even expanding further inland
to cover much of the coastal plain overnight before the front
finally pushes through a clears skies for everyone by Thursday
morning. Besides additional clouds, the moisture combined with broad
lift from a nearby upper jet will be enough for some scattered,
unorganized showers, mainly south of the MA pike, but especially
along the immediate coast. Some garden variety thunderstorms are
also possible given temps in the 70s/80s and dewpoints in the 70s
will lead to MUCAPE values of 500-1000 J/kg. Lows drop into the 60s
for most overnight, but into the 50s in northwest MA where drier air
is in place.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
Key Messages...
* Very warm Thu but with less humidity than the previous several
days. Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible.
Thursday brings with it the last very warm day before a bit of a
cool down to more seasonable temperatures. Plenty of sun is expected
and temperatures will rise well into the 80s, even low 90s for the
hottest spots thanks in part to downslope warming on westerly flow.
Dewpoints will be in the upper 50s/low 60s, yet will still be able
to achieve CAPE values over 1000 J/kg. A mid level trough axis
approaches as a surface cold front swings through kicking off
scattered showers and thunderstorms, some of which could be strong
to severe. Parameters look better than Tuesday, with 0-6 km bulk
shear of 35-40 kts, low level lapse rates of 7.5-8.5, and mid level
lapse rates of 6-6.5. This would lend to a risk for severe hail and
damaging winds. We'll have to see if the timing of the front can
line up well to capitalize on the peak diurnal heating/instability.
The best chance of severe weather is in the interior. For now all of
SNE is under a marginal (level 1 of 5) risk of severe weather.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Key Messages...
* Sunny with drier air for Independence Day and into the weekend.
* Heat and humidity return Sunday into next week.
Quiet weather returns just in time for the Independence Day holiday
and holiday weekend. This is thanks to a surface high and mid level
ridge bringing subsidence and quiet weather to the northeast. Post
frontal temperatures on Friday will top out in the upper 70s to mid
80s, then we'll see a steady increase of temperatures each day going
forward. 90s return on Sunday and Monday along with higher humidity
thanks to warm, moist SW flow. Another front/mid level disturbance
then brings more unsettled weather around the start of the week.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Through 12Z: Moderate Confidence.
IFR-LIFR stratus and fog continues over the Cape and island
terminals. VFR elsewhere with scattered -SHRA.
Today: High confidence.
VFR for most terminals, though IFR cigs will linger over the
Cape/Islands in the morning, through the afternoon at ACK. Risk
for showers will continue near the south coast, with low risk
for an afternoon t-storm.
Tonight: High confidence.
Mainly VFR, but patchy stratus and fog will redevelop along the
south coast.
Thursday: Moderate confidence.
VFR. A line of SHRA/TSRA will move through in the afternoon and
evening.
KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. Expect VFR to
persist, except brief lower conditions in any t-storms after
21z.
KBDL Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. VFR, but risk for
SHRA/TS returns by 20z.
Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/...
Thursday Night through Saturday Night: VFR.
Sunday: VFR. Breezy.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Today through Thursday:
Persistent SW flow through the period, 10-20 kt. Areas of fog
developing over the waters this morning, possibly returning again
tonight. Seas 3-5 ft diminish to 2-4 ft by Thursday.
Outlook/Thursday Night through Sunday/...
Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft.
Independence Day through Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt.
Sunday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for ANZ250-
254.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ255-
256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BW
NEAR TERM...BW
SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...BW
MARINE...BW
Source:
BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 2, 2:36 AM EDT----------------
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