ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 2, 1:57 AM EDT850
FXUS61 KILN 020557
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
157 AM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will work into the region. Mostly dry conditions are
expected through Sunday morning with temperatures gradually warming
into the weekend. A system will begin to approach the region later in
the day on Sunday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A cold front moving through the region has washed out over the area.
Dry conditions are expected through the near term. Fog has already
developed in some areas and expect most of the fog to be across
the southeastern portions of the region closer to the frontal
boundary.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Generally expect dry conditions through the short term, however a few
isolated showers or storms cannot be ruled out during the afternoon
hours on Thursday.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
On Thursday evening, a somewhat ill-defined area of surface high
pressure will be centered over the Ohio Valley region. The upper
level pattern will exhibit troughing over the northeastern states
and Quebec, and ridging building into the central part of the CONUS.
Through the day on Friday, this pattern will not change much, with
just a slight eastward movement for both the surface high and the
upstream mid-level ridge. Could still see some isolated thunderstorm
development Friday afternoon on the northern periphery of the high,
primarily across parts of northern Ohio and northeast Indiana.
However, most locations will remain dry.
Saturday may be the most likely day to remain completely dry, as the
ridging will be most firmly established over the ILN CWA on Saturday
afternoon. As the ridging moves east, the plume of theta-e will
become a little more established over the region, with deep-layer
southwesterly flow bringing both warm conditions and increased
dewpoints to the region. By Sunday, heat index values will be well
into the 90s -- though as of now, it looks like dewpoints will not
quite get high enough to put heat index values at the 100 degree
advisory criteria.
Chances for precipitation will also begin to increase on Sunday,
persisting into early next week as well. With increasing instability
and less capping, and an upper flow pattern that will become a
little more zonal across the Great Lakes, conditions will become
more favorable for diurnal convection in the ILN CWA. Model
agreement remains somewhat poor in exactly how the ridge will end up
breaking down, and where the most favorable corridor for
thunderstorm development will be. While chances for storms will
exist for Sunday and beyond, as of now, no clear signs for organized
convection or significant hazards through the extended forecast
period.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Dry conditions are expected through the TAF period. Mostly clear to
clear skies tonight will give way to cu development on Wednesday.
Fog has generally been forming southeast of the TAF sites, however
cannot rule out fog still at the area TAF sites.
OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible on Sunday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...Hatzos
AVIATION...
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 2, 1:57 AM EDT---------------
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