NHC issues Tropical Cyclone Discussion (TCD) at Jun 17, 10:00 PM CDT932
WTNT41 KNHC 180248
TCDAT1
Potential Tropical Cyclone One Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012024
1000 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024
Satellite images show the large spinning low pressure area centered
over the Bay of Campeche, with lots of convective banding noted
over Yucatan. While dropsondes from an earlier Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter survey mission showed that the pressure had
fallen to about 999 mb, there are still no signs of a well-defined
center, with multiple smaller circulations within the larger gyre.
Thus, the low remains a potential tropical cyclone for this
advisory.
The system has been moving northward at about 6 kt. This general
motion should continue for a day or so, followed by a
west-northwestward turn due to a mid-level ridge building over the
northern Gulf Coast, bringing the low near northeastern Mexico
in a couple of days. The model guidance is in good agreement on
this track, and little change was made to the previous forecast,
with the latest NHC track lying a bit north of the model consensus.
While the low pressure area remains quite broad, a fair number of
the regional hurricane models are suggestive that low could
eventually contract in a low-shear, very warm water environment.
This isn't too difficult to believe as the overall circulation
looks better organized than earlier today, but will likely take
some time to strengthen due to the sprawling nature of the
disturbance. Model guidance has trended upward since the last
cycle, and the NHC intensity forecast is a little higher than the
last one.
It should be noted that regardless of the exact track of the
low, we expect this system to have a large area of heavy rains,
moderate coastal flooding and tropical-storm-force winds well north
of the center. The official wind speed probabilities are likely
underestimating the chances of tropical-storm-force winds along the
Texas coast because of the aclimatologically large and asymmetric
area of strong winds on the northern side of the circulation.
Key Messages:
1. Users are reminded not to focus on the exact forecast track of
this system. The disturbance is very large with rainfall, coastal
flooding, and wind impacts likely to occur far from the center
along the coasts of Texas and northeastern Mexico.
2. Rainfall associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone One will
impact large regions of Central America, northeastern Mexico
and South Texas. This rainfall will likely produce considerable
flash and urban flooding along with new and renewed river flooding.
Mudslides are also possible in areas of higher terrain across
Central America into northeast Mexico.
3. Moderate coastal flooding is likely along much of the Texas
Coast beginning early Tuesday and continuing through midweek.
4. Tropical storm conditions are possible beginning Wednesday over
portions of northeastern Mexico and the Texas coast south of Port
OConnor, where a Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 18/0300Z 20.8N 93.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 18/1200Z 21.6N 92.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
24H 19/0000Z 22.6N 93.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H 19/1200Z 23.2N 95.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H 20/0000Z 23.5N 96.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H 20/1200Z 23.7N 98.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
72H 21/0000Z 23.8N 99.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
96H 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Blake
Source:
NHC issues Tropical Cyclone Discussion (TCD) at Jun 17, 10:00 PM CDT---------------
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