MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 29, 6:51 AM CDT ...New Aviation...003
FXUS64 KMOB 291151
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
651 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025
...New Aviation...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 120 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025
An upper level shortwave system has settled over the eastern
Southeast, with another over the Caribbean along with an active
upper pattern over the northern half of the Conus. All this upper
energy comes together into the coming week, organizing a mean upper
trough over the eastern Conus, with a bit deeper upper low over the
Gulf. In combination with a very moist airmass over the Gulf and
Southeast, the forecast area and nearby enters into a wet pattern,
with scattered to numerous daily showers and thunderstorms into
Tuesday. This convection is expected to form south of the coast
overnight, then shift inland during the day. Instability is modest
for this time of the year (MLCapes in the 1000-1500J/kg range, with
DCapes dropping into the 200-500J/kg range) through this period,
limiting the chances of strong to severe storms. The wet airmass
along with modest instability will allow the expected convection to
be efficient rainers. Weak deep layer winds will limit storm
movement, allowing localized very heavy rains to cause localized
water issues, mainly over our coastal counties and nearby.
Tuesday night through Wednesday, a strong upper level shortwave
system moves into the eastern mean upper trough. A weak cold front
moves south over the Southeast in response, with a significantly
drier airmass behind. An upper ridge builds north over the Plains
mid week, shifting itself and the eastern upper trough east
through the end of the week. Shortwave energy at the base of the
eastern upper trough pinches off, forming an upper circulation off
the Florida Atlantic coast. PoPs drop through the end of the week
into the weekend in response.
The wet pattern Sunday through Tuesday will drop high temperatures
to below seasonal norms. Upper 80s to low 90s today will drop into
the mid to upper 80s for Monday and Tuesday. High temperatures rise
through the end of the week as the upper ridge approaches, rising
into the low to mid 90s by the weekend. Heat indices topping out in
the upper 90s to low 100s today drop into the mid 90s to around 100
for Monday and Tuesday. Heat indices then rise through the end of
the week, though the drier airmass will temper the rise. 100-107
degree heat indices are expected by Saturday. Low temperatures are
expected to see a more steady day to day curve, with low to mid 70s
expected over and north of I-10, mid 70s to near 80 expected over
areas south of I-10 to the coast.
A larger tidal cycle will work with a modest onshore swell to bring
a Moderate Risk of Rip Currents to area beaches the beginning of the
week. The Rip Risk drops to a Low Risk the latter half of the week
as the tidal cycle decreases and the onshore swell drops.
Looking well outside of the Southeast, TD2 has formed over the Bay
of Campeche, and is expected to move northwest over Mexico, well
southwest of the forecast area. No effects are expected from this
storm at this time. /16
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 648 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025
VFR conditions are generally expected throughout most of the day
with brief restrictions (lower ceilings and visibility) during any
thunderstorms today. Isolated storms along the coastline this
morning will continue for the next 2-3 hours before scattered
showers and storms develop this afternoon into the early evening
hours across the entire area. Calm winds will increase to 5-10
knots by late morning and turn southerly to southwesterly by
early afternoon before becoming light and variable again this
evening. 07/mb
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 120 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025
No impacts are expected other than locally higher winds and seas
possible near thunderstorms. /16
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 90 73 88 72 87 72 91 71 / 70 60 90 60 90 60 80 40
Pensacola 89 75 85 74 86 74 89 74 / 70 60 90 70 90 60 80 50
Destin 90 77 88 77 88 77 90 77 / 70 70 90 80 90 70 80 50
Evergreen 92 71 88 70 88 70 91 70 / 70 40 90 40 90 40 70 20
Waynesboro 91 71 87 71 89 71 91 70 / 60 30 80 40 80 30 40 10
Camden 90 71 86 70 86 71 88 69 / 60 30 80 40 90 40 50 10
Crestview 91 71 86 70 88 70 91 71 / 80 50 100 60 100 50 90 30
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 29, 6:51 AM CDT ...New Aviation...---------------
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