LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 30, 3:58 AM EDT873
FXUS63 KLMK 300758
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
358 AM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Showers and storms possible mainly this afternoon, with rain
chances lingering tonight into Tuesday.
* Less humid conditions arrive Wednesday and Thursday.
* Turning hot and muggy again next weekend, with storm chances
returning.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 358 AM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025
Upper shortwave trof over the Dakotas will push east today and cross
the Great Lakes on Tuesday, driving a sfc cold front through the
Ohio Valley. Subtle disturbances ahead of it will interact with the
tropical air mass in place to trigger showers and storms today. Less
confidence in the usual diurnal timing today, as some of the hi-res
models try to bring a wave of convection through the area later this
morning. Coverage at any given time will likely be no more than
scattered, but most areas will see showers or storms at some point.
Stronger lapse rates and around 2000 J/kg of CAPE will support pulse
storms capable of producing marginally severe gusts in wet
microbursts. With the approaching front, storms could persist into
the evening but would likely diminish in intensity with the loss of
heating.
Cold front moves through southern Indiana late tonight and most of
Kentucky Tuesday morning, but the less humid air mass lags a bit
behind in the absence of a strong post-frontal surge. Could see
showers and storms Tuesday morning, mainly in east-central and south-
central Kentucky. Overall it's truly a transition day as we'll have
post-frontal NW winds but will remain on the muggy side.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 358 AM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025
Less humid air will filter in as sfc high pressure settles into the
mid-Mississippi Valley. Heights aloft don't drop much so temps will
remain near normal for mid-summer, but dewpoints in the lower/mid
60s Wed-Thu will be a modest break from typical July humidity.
By Independence Day the dewpoints start to rise again as the sfc
high retreats to our east and an amplifying upper ridge builds
overhead. Models are showing some hints of a warm front to focus
convection, but that would mainly be to our north in Indiana and
into Ohio and may not even have mentionable precip chances over most
of our area.
Sat-Sun will see highs again reaching the 90s with dewpoints surging
into the 70s as the upper ridge continues to build over the Red
River Valley and noses into the Ohio Valley. Daily chances for
showers and storms also return with the juicy air mass.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 151 AM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025
Another muggy night with light south winds, and debris clouds that
aren't low or extensive enough for any restriction below VFR. Not
great agreement in the models regarding a batch of convection that
might come through after daybreak through about midday. Not
confident enough to include it at this time but will carry MVFR cigs
for a few hrs later in the morning.
The afternoon looks like yet another repeat performance with
scattered storms. Will handle that with a PROB30 from 18Z til 0Z
Tue, and while cigs won't drop below VFR any heavier shower or storm
will produce a period of IFR vis.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RAS
LONG TERM...RAS
AVIATION...RAS
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 30, 3:58 AM EDT---------------
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