MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 27, 2:12 PM CDT ...New Aviation, Discussion, Marine...083
FXUS64 KMOB 271912
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
212 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025
...New Aviation, Discussion, Marine...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 147 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025
A closed upper low meandering across the northern Gulf has brought
increased showers and storms to the area this afternoon. The
greatest rain chances are mainly west of I-65 where forcing for
ascent and moisture is best; however, a few scattered storms have
developed along the I-10 corridor with the seabreeze working
inland. As we head into the weekend, this upper low will loiter
around the area and slowly get absorbed by a northern stream
trough by Sunday. As a result, expect increased coverage of
showers and storms through the weekend.
We will remain squished between an upper low over Florida and
upper level ridging across to our west. This will keep us in a
rather active pattern for the foreseeable future. This will be
especially true by midweek as a subtle boundary stalls near the
area leading to increased focus for storms. Moisture will steadily
increase with increasingly southwesterly flow as a series of
shortwaves moves through the Great Lakes. With PWATS climbing to
above 2 inches and staying above 2 inches, expect storms to be
frequent each afternoon. Like most summertime storms, we will have
to keep an eye out for some strong wind gusts each afternoon.
However, the bigger concern will likely be heavy rainfall and
increased chances for flash flooding. With much of the area
running a few inches above normal for the month and plenty more
rain to come, grounds will eventually not be able to handle much
more rain. As a result, flash flooding risks could increase next
week. NBM 48 hour QPF means for Monday through Thursday run around
2 to 3 inches along the coast with the 90th percentile around 4-6
inches. While this doesn't sound like much, these amounts at days
4-6 are rather significant and certainly lean towards some
concerns. The one good thing about the rain is that temperatures
will be more mild and as a result we will not be dealing with any
heat related products. BB-8
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 147 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms have already
developed across southeastern Mississippi and further storms are
expected this afternoon across the I-10 corridor. Storms will be
capable of gusty winds and temporary reductions of visibilities to
IFR. Storms should subside by the evening with VFR conditions
returning to the area with light and variable winds. BB-8
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 147 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025
Light southerly winds will persist through the weekend before
increasing next week out of the southwest. Increased showers and
storms will be possible through the weekend into the middle of
next week. No hazards are expected at this time outside of
increased seas and winds in the vicinity of any thunderstorms.
BB-8
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 72 90 73 89 74 89 72 90 / 30 70 30 90 50 90 50 90
Pensacola 76 89 76 89 76 87 75 88 / 20 70 40 80 60 90 60 90
Destin 78 90 78 91 78 89 77 89 / 30 60 50 80 60 90 70 80
Evergreen 69 92 70 91 71 90 71 90 / 20 60 20 80 30 90 40 90
Waynesboro 69 92 71 92 71 88 71 89 / 20 60 10 80 20 80 30 80
Camden 70 90 71 89 71 87 71 87 / 20 40 20 80 30 80 30 90
Crestview 70 91 70 91 71 89 71 90 / 20 70 30 90 40 100 50 90
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 27, 2:12 PM CDT ...New Aviation, Discussion, Marine...---------------
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