MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 26, 12:22 AM CDT ...New Aviation...209
FXUS64 KMOB 260522
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1222 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025
...New Aviation...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 401 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025
Tonight through Thursday Night...
We are still expecting two bouts of storms to pass through the
forecast area as the upper low pressure area centered over the east
central Florida coast drifts slowly north-northwestward to over
southern Georgia. The first complex of thunderstorms is initiating
currently and will continue to expand inland through mid evening,
and then mostly dissipate. The second complex of thunderstorms is
anticipated to occur late tonight through noon Thursday, moving from
east to west in the easterlies. The atmosphere has already become
impressively unstable, and MLCAPE values have already reached as
high as 4000 to 4500 J/kg. Both events have the potential to bring
damaging surface winds from localized microbursts as DCAPE values
could be as high as 1400 J/kg. Large hail up to around 2 inches in
diameter will also be a threat with mid-level lapse rates reach as
high as 7.0 C/km. Frequent lightning and heavy bouts of rain are
likely as well. A LOW risk of rip currents remains in place through
the near term.
Temperatures will average 2 to 5 degrees above normal. Low temps
interior areas tonight and Thursday night will be in the lower to
middle 70s, and the upper 70s along the beaches and barrier islands.
Highs on Thursday will range from 92 to 96 degrees inland, and
around 90 degrees along the beaches and barrier islands. With
surface dewpoints in the lower 70s, maximum apparent temperatures
(heat indices) could be as high as 103 degrees. /22
Friday Through Wednesday...
A very light northerly flow pattern aloft will be in place
through the period as our local region becomes sandwiched between
an upper ridge over the Southern Plains and an upper low over
Florida. Subtle shortwave impulses look to move within the flow
aloft through the period, providing weak forcing across the
region. This, along with plenty of moisture and instability in
place, will give way to scattered to numerous showers and storms
developing each day. With a lack of any notable synoptic features,
activity will generally follow a typical summertime, diurnal
pattern, with offshore/coastal showers and storms developing
during the morning, scattered to numerous storms developing across
southern portions of the area during the early afternoon hours,
storms spreading inland via outflow/sea breeze boundary collisions
during the late afternoon, and activity dissipating during the
mid to late evening due to the loss of daytime heating. Storms
will be pulse-type in nature due to a lack of shear, and therefore
am not expecting any organized severe weather throughout the
period. However, as we typically see with this type of pattern,
cannot rule out a few stronger storms capable of producing gusty
downburst winds. Temperatures will generally be around seasonal
norms, with highs topping out in the upper 80s to low 90s each day
and lows ranging from the low 70s inland to the upper 70s along
the immediate coast. /96
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025
Remaining convection over northeastern portions of the forecast
area is moving off, with general VFR conditions remaining. Another
round of showers and thunderstorms is expected around sunrise
Thursday, becoming more numerous and stronger in the afternoon.
Local drops to low end MVFR, even IFR in the stronger storms,
is possible.
/16
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 401 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025
No significant impacts to small craft are expected through
early next week outside of locally higher winds/seas and reduced
visibilities associated with occasional showers and thunderstorms.
Otherwise, variable winds will continue through early next week with
a light offshore flow late each night and morning followed by a
light onshore flow in the afternoon and evening. /22
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
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www.weather.gov/mob
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 26, 12:22 AM CDT ...New Aviation...---------------
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