IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 27, 1:17 AM EDT622
FXUS63 KIWX 270517
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
117 AM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Hot and humid conditions again on Friday, with some brief
relief from the heat on Saturday.
- Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected Friday
afternoon into Friday evening. These thunderstorms will be
capable of strong gusty winds and excessive rainfall.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 842 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025
Scattered convection has continued to fester over far nw IN and
sw MI on the western flank of an outflow boundary and associated
MUCAPE axis. Little to no flow to work with but a few storms may
have some brief hail and wind gusts to 40 mp through 10 pm EDT
here. Stable outflow bubble will keep the rest of the area dry
otherwise this evening into the overnight.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 151 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025
Another hot and humid day with highs topping out around 90
degrees and heat indicies near 100 after you combine in the
humidity. Sensitive populations should continue to take extra
precautions against the heat. Moderate to strong instability
and PWAT around 1.6in will promote convection through the rest
of the afternoon, as we have already begun to see late morning
and early afternoon across the Michiana region. Weak overall
shear will inhibit sustained updrafts, and storms should be
pulse-like with strong gusty outflow winds being the predominant
threat (in addition to lightning and localized heavy rain, of
course).
A cold front will eventually work its way into the area on
Friday. Additional showers and storms will be expected (60-70%
chance) as this front moves through the area. By Saturday,
temperatures will have "cooled" down slightly into the low-mid
80s. Rain chances favor the southern half of our forecast area
on Sat.
Warmer temperatures return Sunday and Monday. However, surface
high pressure building over the Central Plains and troughiness
returning to Ontario/Great Lakes region which will cool us down
a little bit for the first couple of July days. Hopefully the
return of dewpoints back in the 60s vs the 70s we've been
experiencing will be a welcome relief.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 113 AM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025
Thunderstorms continue to percolate over northwest IN, impacting
KSBN. Numerous outflow boundaries are noted and this activity is
rooted not only on those outflows but on a moisture gradient
aloft per mid-level water vapor imagery. This activity ought to
decline in coverage any hour now with a loss of daytime heating
and eventually a worked over atmosphere. Storms are not expected
to arrive to KFWA as they are moving NE.
As low pressure moves through MI today, wind will be on the
increase followed by a chance for thunderstorms ahead of a cold
front. I did adjusted the onset time of storms later at KSBN
where there is some question as to whether storms may fire east
of KSBN. Higher confidence in a TSRA at KFWA during the daytime
hours.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Steinwedel
DISCUSSION...Norman
AVIATION...Brown
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 27, 1:17 AM EDT---------------
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