CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 21, 10:06 AM EDT324
FXUS61 KCLE 211406
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1006 AM EDT Sat Jun 21 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level ridge allows heat to build through mid week. The
ridge weakens slightly and drifts back southward for the end of
the week, possibly bringing back unsettled conditions to the
region.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Complex of thunderstorms has been moving generally east across
lower Michigan this morning. The more vigorous development
continues to be to the northeast where the low level theta-e
advection is ongoing. However we are getting some mid-level
moisture streaming around the ridge southward across Lake Erie.
Have raised pops across the Lake and clipping the northern tier
of counties with a low pop as this moves east this morning. Best
chances for a stray thunderstorm or two is across far NE Ohio
and NW PA where MU CAPE is around 1000 J/kg. The window of time
for precipitation is only through about 19Z as the ridge builds
in from the west and the atmosphere becomes capped from west to
east. Temperatures will climb quickly today as clouds clear
with heat index values exceeding 95 degrees in NW Ohio this
afternoon.
Previous Discussion...
An axis of convection is firing northeast of a warm front from
northern Wisconsin into southwest Michigan. Some elevated
instability into northwest Ohio this morning could assist any
additional storms that fire along the southern end of that line as
they move into the area, but overall, the column is on the dry side
and otherwise not supportive of sustaining convection. That said,
using low end POPs for northwest Ohio and the western basin of Lake
Erie for later this morning. Later today, the frontal boundary will
lift northeastward into Lake Huron and across the eastern basin of
Lake Erie and ongoing convection will traverse the Great Lakes into
southern Ontario also thanks to the 500mb ridge building northward.
Overall, the feeling is that the low/mid level moisture in the
column for the far northeastern zones of our CWA of northwest PA is
likely not sufficient to support convection for the area, and for
now, will not carry POPs this afternoon in this region. This could
change if the deeper moisture extends further southwest back into
our CWA than current forecast models are indicating.
In the meantime, the aforementioned ridge builds in from the south
with increasing heights, marking the trend towards significant heat
for the end of the weekend and early next week. Temperatures on the
increase today with mid 80s east to lower 90s west and dewpoints
pushing the 70F mark. Muggy overnight with lows in the 70s for the
most part and then well into the 90s for the bulk of the CWA for
Sunday. Dewpoints in the lower 70s will have heat index vales
eclipsing 100 in places, and have gone with a Heat Advisory going
forward.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A strong upper ridge/high will remain in place over the local area
through the short term period, allowing the dome of heat to persist
through at least Tuesday. Confidence in a prolonged period of
heat/humidity is high, but confidence in the exact magnitude of heat
is a bit lower. Latest forecast soundings suggest that there could
be some vertical mixing during peak diurnal heating Monday/Tuesday,
which could result in slightly lower dew points than currently
forecast. On the other hand, 850mb temps will be around 20-22C and
mixing may result in warmer surface temps than currently forecast.
As of now, forecast high temps Monday/Tuesday will be in the 90s
(possibly near record values; see Daily Record High Maximum
Temperatures at the bottom of this AFD), although temps may be a few
degrees cooler near the lakeshore in Ashtabula/Erie (PA) counties.
Maximum heat indices will generally be in the 95-102 degree range
with nearly all locations likely reaching 100 degrees at some point
during the Heat Advisory (which is in effect through Tuesday
evening). Overnight lows will be in the 70s with locally warmer
temps likely in urban areas. These warm overnight lows combined with
high humidity values will result in very little overnight relief.
Temps may finally begin to decrease Tuesday night, but still expect
overnight temps in the lower 70s.
Dry weather with plenty of sunshine is expected through Monday
before diurnal shower/thunderstorm chances beginning to increase as
a cold front sags south towards the local area. Overall confidence
in coverage is low; PoPs are currently capped at around 40 percent
across NW OH Tuesday afternoon.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The weather pattern will begin to shift mid to late week as a cold
front sinks south towards the local area and likely stalls somewhere
to the north of Lake Erie Wednesday through at least Thursday/early
Friday. Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase during the
long term period with precipitation chances peaking during maximum
diurnal instability during the afternoon/early evening. Can't rule
out stronger thunderstorms/localized flooding during this time, but
still far too early to clearly determine any potential hazards.
Warm temperatures and humidity will continue despite the pattern
change with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s and maximum heat
indices in the 90s anticipated Wednesday/Thursday. A few spots may
approach Heat Advisory criteria these days, but confidence is quite
low given the arrival of rain chances/increased cloud cover. Temps
may trend a bit cooler into the 80s by Friday. Expect overnight lows
in the lower 70s each night.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
A warm front will push through the region, and will expect winds
to increase out of the southwest with gusts 15-25kts today. The
gusts will subside tonight after daytime heating ends for the
day, but sustained southwest winds to 15kts is still likely.
Otherwise, the forecast is VFR with SCT cumulus developing today
around FL035.
Outlook...Non-VFR possible Wednesday on with scattered showers
and thunderstorms.
&&
.MARINE...
Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots are expected through this afternoon
before winds increase to 15 to 20 knots this evening into early
Sunday morning. The lake will probably be choppy starting this
afternoon with waves building to around 4 feet in the open waters
this evening. Winds will gradually diminish Sunday morning/afternoon
with sustained winds to 6 to 12 knots expected Sunday evening
through early Tuesday. Winds may become more variable as a cold
front sinks south towards Lake Erie for Tuesday and Wednesday, but
expect winds speeds to be 10 knots or less. Headlines are not
anticipated through early next week.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures
Date Toledo Mansfield Cleveland Akron Youngstown Erie
06-22 99(1988) 95(1988) 98(1988) 97(1988) 97(1933) 94(1988)
06-23 96(1911) 91(1964) 94(1948) 94(1923) 94(1943) 92(1964)
06-24 95(2005) 93(1933) 96(1952) 95(1923) 93(1952) 92(1952)
06-25 104(1988) 101(1988) 104(1988) 100(1988) 99(1988) 100(1988)
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Heat Advisory from noon Sunday to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for OHZ003-
006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
PA...Heat Advisory from noon Sunday to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for
PAZ001>003.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...10/26
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...26
MARINE...15
CLIMATE...
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 21, 10:06 AM EDT---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
