JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 20, 2:15 PM EDT565
FXUS63 KJKL 201815 AAA
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
215 PM EDT Fri Jun 20 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Heat builds this weekend through the middle of next week. Heat
indices in the 100 to 105 degree range are forecast for many
locations from Sunday to Thursday.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 130 PM EDT FRI JUN 20 2025
No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just
the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids.
These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web
servers.
UPDATE Issued at 1015 AM EDT FRI JUN 20 2025
Fog continues to lift and dissipate this morning, with
visibilities having improved in all locations. Any remaining fog
will dissipate shortly as it lifts into stratocu and cumulus and
eventually mixes out entirely. Temperatures should peak near
normal for this afternoon.
UPDATE Issued at 1231 AM EDT FRI JUN 20 2025
Forecast is on track. Latest obs have been blended into the
forecast without any substantive changes.|
UPDATE Issued at 1045 PM EDT THU JUN 19 2025
Rain has almost left the JKL forecast area, and skies clear behind
the precip. Fog is already prevalent where rain fell in the late
afternoon into this evening (mainly in southeast KY), and it's
been brought on earlier in the forecast area wide. There is a
potential for a Dense Fog Advisory to be needed.
UPDATE Issued at 714 PM EDT THU JUN 19 2025
With the line of showers/thunderstorms dropping south through our
southern counties, have raised and fine tuned the POP for that
area for the next few hours based on latest guidance and radar
data.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 435 PM EDT THU JUN 19 2025
A cold front continues to move southeast across eastern KY and
extends from near the KHTS vicinity to south of Morehead to the
Bowling Green vicinity to AR to OK in advance of a 500 mb trough
axis. Currently storms that have become aligned more north to
south with the 0-3km bulk shear have produced wind gusts into the
30 to 40 mph range or so with some locations that experienced
training cells receiving heavy rainfall. South of the boundary,
current SPC Mesoanalysis has MLCAPE analyzed at 100 to 1500 J/kg
with low level lapse rates near 7C/km though mid level lapse rates
are weaker generally only near 5.5C/km if not 5 C/km. Effective
shear is analyzed at 30 to 35KT.
Near and ahead of the boundary through early evening, some strong
wind gusts will remain possible with the more optimally north to
south aligned line segments or clusters a small chance for a
locally damaging wind gusts. Otherwise the front will continue
sliding across the region through around sunset with the 500 mb
trough axis crossing eastern KY this evening and departing to the
east and northeast tonight with rising heights expected overnight
and into Friday and Friday night with surface and upper level
ridging building into the region. The sfc high will usher in drier
dewpoints behind it nearer to 60 degrees and even with
evapotranspiration on Friday, dewpoints should remain in the low
to mid 60s during peak mixing a bit of a relief compared to recent
days. Highs should be near normal.
With surface and upper level ridging dominating fog will become a
concern tonight as skies clear out following recent rainfall and
wet ground, especially south of I-64. Some dense fog is possible,
and some areas of dense fog are currently forecast. Confidence in
extent was not high enough for an SPS or mention in the HWO just
yet, but trends will be monitored. Fog should again affect valley
locations in particular on Friday night, with some dense fog in
the river valleys and along the larger creeks and area lakes
probable. The ridge will continue to build as we move into the
weekend with summertime heat arriving as we move into the first
few full days of summer.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 400 PM EDT THU JUN 19 2025
Upper level ridging is expected to be centered in the lower MS Valley
to TN Valley region to begin the weekend and encompass much of
the Southern Plains to Southeast to Southern Appalachian region to
begin the weekend. At the same time, an upper level low is
expected to initially be in place over the Northwest Conus with
an associated trough over much of the western Conus to Great Basin
region. This will displace the westerlies north of the OH Valley
and from the Central and Northern Plains/US/Canadian border
across the Great Lakes to the northeast as upper troughing departs
further to the north and east of the Commonwealth. Meanwhile sfc
high pressure is expected to initially be centered over the
Appalachians while a frontal zone should extend from the Northeast
and eastern Great Lakes across the Northern Great Lakes to the
Dakotas to MT and then into the western Conus with another frontal
zone extending from the Hudson and James By region across north
of the US/Canadian border to BC.
Over the weekend, the consensus of guidance is for the upper level
ridge to build over the eastern Conus and Great Lakes and strengthen
to about 596 yo 598 dm at 500 mb while becoming centered over the OH
Valley and then gradually shifting to the Blue Ridge Mtns in VA/Mid
Atlantic states by late Sunday night. At the same time, the upper
level low may weaken as it moves from the western Conus to Central
and Northern plain, but an upper level trough axis should remain
from the Northern Rockies/MT to the Southwest Conus. Meanwhile a
ridge of surface high pressure will build across the
eastern/southeastern Conus with the high remaining centered in the
northeast TN/SW VA to KY and VA border vicinity. Meanwhile the two
frontal zones well northwest of the area should merge into a single
frontal zone from the Maritimes across Quebec and Ontario to a
sfc low in western Ontario with the frontal zone trailing into
the Central Plains to CO and portions of the western Conus by late
Sunday night.
From Monday to midweek, upper level ridging is expected to remain
centered near the Mid Atlantic states Monday to Tuesday and then
gradually becoming centered further southwest into the Southern
Appalachians to OH and TN Valleys by Wednesday. The ridge will is
expected to be rather strong on the order of 598 to 599 dm at 500
mb from Monday to Tuesday. As this occurs the ridge should become
increasingly flatter or elongated from west to east as multiple
shortwaves move from the western Conus trough and across portions
of the Central to Northern Plains to the Great Lakes and Ontario
and Quebec with additional shortwaves also moving east near the
US/Canadian border. The OH Valley and eastern KY will remain well
south of a frontal zone from the Northeast to the Great Lakes to
the Plains and well into the warm sector through at least
Thursday.
Early Saturday morning, fog, especially in the valleys may be
dense near sunrise, but then dissipate during the morning. The
pattern will support valley fog each night into the middle of next
week. Otherwise, the upward trend in temperatures will begin on
Saturday with the building ridge, with most locations forecast to
peak in the low to mid 90s by the Sunday to Thursday. A bit of
ridge/valley temperature split should occur on Saturday night and
Sunday night which will provide some relief. However, as moisture
increases and next week progresses increasingly poorer overnight
recovery is anticipated with many locations likely not falling
below the 70s by Tuesday night and/or Wednesday night. Increasing
dewpoints and humidity and heat indices are anticipated as highs
warm to end the weekend and continuing into the middle of next
week and heat indices will reach 100 to 105 in some locations from
Sunday to Thursday.
Some diurnally driven isolated convection could affect the TN
Cumberland Plateau to the KY/VA/TN Tri State Area portions of the
Cumberland Basin as early as Tuesday though isolated to scattered
convection will be more probable by Wednesday to Thursday with
differential heating possibly providing a trigger.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 215 PM EDT FRI JUN 20 2025
VFR conditions will be the rule through the day, though brief MVFR
CIGs are possible during the rest of the afternoon. Under mostly
clear skies tonight, valley fog may work into a few of the TAF
sites during the pre-dawn hours into Saturday morning. Winds will
be light through the period.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...GREIF
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 20, 2:15 PM EDT---------------
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