JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 19, 4:58 PM EDT574
FXUS63 KJKL 192058
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
458 PM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Showers and thunderstorms are possible through this evening,
with strong to damaging wind gusts and the potential for high
water or flash flooding.
- Heat builds this weekend through the middle of next week. Heat
indices in the 100 to 105 degree range are forecast from Monday
to Thursday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 435 PM EDT THU JUN 19 2025
A cold front continues to move southeast across eastern KY and
extends from near the KHTS vicinity to south of Morehead to the
Bowling Green vicinity to AR to OK in advance of a 500 mb trough
axis. Currently storms that have become aligned more north to
south with the 0-3km bulk shear have produced wind gusts into the
30 to 40 mph range or so with some locations that experienced
training cells receiving heavy rainfall. South of the boundary,
current SPC Mesoanalysis has MLCAPE analyzed at 100 to 1500 J/kg
with low level lapse rates near 7C/km though mid level lapse rates
are weaker generally only near 5.5C/km if not 5 C/km. Effective
shear is analyzed at 30 to 35KT.
Near and ahead of the boundary through early evening, some strong
wind gusts will remain possible with the more optimally north to
south aligned line segments or clusters a small chance for a
locally damaging wind gusts. Otherwise the front will continue
sliding across the region through around sunset with the 500 mb
trough axis crossing eastern KY this evening and departing to the
east and northeast tonight with rising heights expected overnight
and into Friday and Friday night with surface and upper level
ridging building into the region. The sfc high will usher in drier
dewpoints behind it nearer to 60 degrees and even with
evapotranspiration on Friday, dewpoints should remain in the low
to mid 60s during peak mixing a bit of a relief compared to recent
days. Highs should be near normal.
With surface and upper level ridging dominating fog will become a
concern tonight as skies clear out following recent rainfall and
wet ground, especially south of I-64. Some dense fog is possible,
and some areas of dense fog are currently forecast. Confidence in
extent was not high enough for an SPS or mention in the HWO just
yet, but trends will be monitored. Fog should again affect valley
locations in particular on Friday night, with some dense fog in
the river valleys and along the larger creeks and area lakes
probable. The ridge will continue to build as we move into the
weekend with summertime heat arriving as we move into the first
few full days of summer.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 400 PM EDT THU JUN 19 2025
Upper level ridging is expected to be centered in the lower MS Valley
to TN Valley region to begin the weekend and encompass much of
the Southern Plains to Southeast to Southern Appalachian region to
begin the weekend. At the same time, an upper level low is
expected to initially be in place over the Northwest Conus with
an associated trough over much of the western Conus to Great Basin
region. This will displace the westerlies north of the OH Valley
and from the Central and Northern Plains/US/Canadian border
across the Great Lakes to the northeast as upper troughing departs
further to the north and east of the Commonwealth. Meanwhile sfc
high pressure is expected to initially be centered over the
Appalachians while a frontal zone should extend from the Northeast
and eastern Great Lakes across the Northern Great Lakes to the
Dakotas to MT and then into the western Conus with another frontal
zone extending from the Hudson and James By region across north
of the US/Canadian border to BC.
Over the weekend, the consensus of guidance is for the upper level
ridge to build over the eastern Conus and Great Lakes and strengthen
to about 596 yo 598 dm at 500 mb while becoming centered over the OH
Valley and then gradually shifting to the Blue Ridge Mtns in VA/Mid
Atlantic states by late Sunday night. At the same time, the upper
level low may weaken as it moves from the western Conus to Central
and Northern plain, but an upper level trough axis should remain
from the Northern Rockies/MT to the Southwest Conus. Meanwhile a
ridge of surface high pressure will build across the
eastern/southeastern Conus with the high remaining centered in the
northeast TN/SW VA to KY and VA border vicinity. Meanwhile the two
frontal zones well northwest of the area should merge into a single
frontal zone from the Maritimes across Quebec and Ontario to a
sfc low in western Ontario with the frontal zone trailing into
the Central Plains to CO and portions of the western Conus by late
Sunday night.
From Monday to midweek, upper level ridging is expected to remain
centered near the Mid Atlantic states Monday to Tuesday and then
gradually becoming centered further southwest into the Southern
Appalachians to OH and TN Valleys by Wednesday. The ridge will is
expected to be rather strong on the order of 598 to 599 dm at 500
mb from Monday to Tuesday. As this occurs the ridge should become
increasingly flatter or elongated from west to east as multiple
shortwaves move from the western Conus trough and across portions
of the Central to Northern Plains to the Great Lakes and Ontario
and Quebec with additional shortwaves also moving east near the
US/Canadian border. The OH Valley and eastern KY will remain well
south of a frontal zone from the Northeast to the Great Lakes to
the Plains and well into the warm sector through at least
Thursday.
Early Saturday morning, fog, especially in the valleys may be
dense near sunrise, but then dissipate during the morning. The
pattern will support valley fog each night into the middle of next
week. Otherwise, the upward trend in temperatures will begin on
Saturday with the building ridge, with most locations forecast to
peak in the low to mid 90s by the Sunday to Thursday. A bit of
ridge/valley temperature split should occur on Saturday night and
Sunday night which will provide some relief. However, as moisture
increases and next week progresses increasingly poorer overnight
recovery is anticipated with many locations likely not falling
below the 70s by Tuesday night and/or Wednesday night. Increasing
dewpoints and humidity and heat indices are anticipated as highs
warm to end the weekend and continuing into the middle of next
week and heat indices will reach 100 to 105 in some locations from
Sunday to Thursday.
Some diurnally driven isolated convection could affect the TN
Cumberland Plateau to the KY/VA/TN Tri State Area portions of the
Cumberland Basin as early as Tuesday though isolated to scattered
convection will be more probable by Wednesday to Thursday with
differential heating possibly providing a trigger.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 215 PM EDT THU JUN 19 2025
A mixture of MVFR and VFR conditions were reported at issuance
time with some showers and storms across northern sections of the
area nearer to JKL and SYM. Winds south of a boundary sagging
toward the I-64 corridor were from the southwest to west and
west to northwest north of the boundary at KFGX into northern KY
and IN as well as OH. As the front moves through, showers and
storms should lead to MVFR to IFR reductions with an overall trend
to VFR in all areas outside of any showers and storms. Shower and
storm chances diminish from northwest to southwest through around
00Z to 01Z, giving way to clearing skies and slackening winds as
a ridge of high pressure builds into eastern KY and the
Appalachians. This should set the stage for fog development and
given recent rainfall over the past 5 to 7 days, particularly in
valley locations and areas south of I-64 where drier air will move
in later. Some dense fog may develop by the 04Z to 08Z for valley
locations and TAF sites, especially KSME, KLOZ, KJKL, and KSJS
will probably be affected by IFR or lower conditions. LAMP
guidance suggests KJKL, KLOZ, KSME, and KSJS falling below airport
mins by the 08Z to 12Z timeframe with reductions to IFR at KSYM.
Improvements back to VFR should occur during the 12Z to 14Z period
with VFR and light winds prevailing to end the period.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JP
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 19, 4:58 PM EDT---------------
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