CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 20, 3:48 AM EDT532
FXUS61 KCLE 200748
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
348 AM EDT Fri Jun 20 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level ridge will build into the eastern third of the
country bringing sustained heat to the region into next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Wholesale pattern change will be taking place today as an upper
level ridge begins to build over the Tennessee Valley. As it does
so, northwest flow aloft controls the Great Lakes region today and
tonight, playing a role in the sensible weather. Current convective
activity that has fired along a warm front in the northern plains
region will track along the 500mb height contours today and into the
southern Great Lakes. Expecting much of the thunderstorm activity to
wane as they move into a drier airmass later this morning and
afternoon. Some instability in the column will exist, but for the
most part, POPs are non zero but low today given the lack of layer
humidity. More evident will be an increase in cloud cover during the
afternoon hours from the high level convective debris from the
aforementioned convection going on northwest of here. Dry tonight as
the building ridge aloft pushes the gradient north of the CWA and
with it, any other developing convective activity from the upper
Mississippi Valley. In the meantime, as heights build, 850mb
temperatures increase from the mid teens today to the lower 20s on
Saturday, which will give us the first hints of a heat wave that
will dominate much of the rest of the 7 day forecast.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Dry weather is favored through Monday night, but the hottest air
mass of the season will arrive during the short term period as a 595-
600dm H5 builds over the region. Temperatures will rise into the low
to mid 90s Sunday through Tuesday with locations along the I-75
corridor possibly approaching the upper 90s on Monday afternoon.
High temperatures may approach record values (see Daily High Record
Maximum Temperatures section at the bottom of this AFD).
Moist southwesterly/return flow will produce in dew points in the
upper 60s to lower 70s throughout the period, resulting in
oppressive/dangerous heat indices in the 95-104 degree range during
the afternoon Sunday through Tuesday. Very little relief will occur
overnight with overnight lows in the 70s and high RH values
anticipated Saturday night onwards.
Typical impacts from these heat indices are considered as extreme
and will affect those without effective cooling and/or hydration.
Heat related impacts may also occur in health systems and heat-
sensitive infrastructure. As of now, heat indices will likely remain
below Extreme Heat Warning criteria (apparent temps of 105 degrees
or higher), but an Extreme Heat Watch has been issued given the
prolonged period of hazardous heat indices with little overnight
relief. At the very least, most (if not all of the area will most
likely end up with Heat Advisories Sunday through Tuesday.
Shower/thunderstorm chances may begin to return as a cold front
drifts south towards the CWA, but overall confidence of
timing/placement of precip is quite low.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The weather pattern may become a bit more unsettled by midweek as
the aforementioned cold front continues to drift south and stalls
somewhere near or to the north of Lake Erie. Scattered
showers/thunderstorms are possible through the long term period with
the highest PoPs during peak heating each afternoon. Temperatures
will slowly begin to decrease Wednesday/Thursday, but still expect
highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s and daytime heat indices in the
90s likely. A few spots may experience heat indices of around 100
degrees on Wednesday afternoon, but overall confidence is low since
rain chances/cloud cover may result in cooler temperatures than
currently forecast. Overnight lows will generally be in the lower
70s.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Mainly clear for the overnight. Friday gets high level
convective debris clouds from MCS activity in the northern
plains moving southeast towards the southern Great Lakes. Also
will get diurnal heating cumulus formation around FL045.
Southwest winds around 10kts. Isolated non severe storms
possible, far too low for mention in the TAF.
Outlook...Non-VFR not expected through Tuesday.
&&
.MARINE...
Winds on the lake will be out of the southwest at 6 to 12 knots
today before becoming more south/southeasterly for a period tonight.
Southwest winds will increase to 10 to 15 knots Saturday morning and
likely increase further to 15 to 20 knots in the western and central
basin by late afternoon. Winds and waves may be locally higher in
scattered showers/thunderstorms today through Saturday morning.
Breezy southwest flow will persist through at least early afternoon
Sunday before winds diminish below 15 knots Sunday evening through
Tuesday. At this point, winds/waves should remain below Small Craft
Advisory criteria, but waves may periodically build to 2 to 4 feet
in the open waters Saturday through Sunday afternoon.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures
Date Toledo Mansfield Cleveland Akron Youngstown Erie
06-22 99(1988) 95(1988) 98(1988) 97(1988) 97(1933) 94(1988)
06-23 96(1911) 91(1964) 94(1948) 94(1923) 94(1943) 92(1964)
06-24 95(2005) 93(1933) 96(1952) 95(1923) 93(1952) 92(1952)
06-25 104(1988) 101(1988) 104(1988) 100(1988) 99(1988) 100(1988)
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...26
MARINE...15
CLIMATE...
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 20, 3:48 AM EDT---------------
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