ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 19, 10:15 AM EDT236
FXUS61 KILN 191415
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1015 AM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A chance of showers and thunderstorms will continue today ahead of a cold
front. Drier weather is then expected on Friday and into the weekend,
with heat and humidity increasing by Sunday and into next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Morning update...
Starting to see shower coverage increase across portions of the area,
especially down in northern Kentucky where some downpours have
formed within a belt of deeper moisture. The cold front has entered
the area and is moving through the upper Miami Vally this morning,
progressing through the rest of the area throughout the afternoon.
With this update, isolated thunderstorm chances to the east and
south, where more heating will be observed ahead of the cold front.
Otherwise, no major changes from the previous forecast.
Previous discussion...
Mid level trof to track east across the Great Lakes today. Associated
surface low over lower Michigan to track northeast into Ontario
Canada with southward trailing cold front pushing thru ILN/s area
this aftn.
Moderate surface based instability develops ahead of the front. As a
result, showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop throughout
the morning hours and into the early afternoon as the cold front
progresses through the area.
Temperatures initially warm up before the cold front begins to move
through, with northern locations seeing temperatures drop into the
early afternoon. Across the south, temperatures will warm up during
the morning before dropping during the late afternoon. High temperatures
range from the mid 70s north to around 80 south.
Southwest winds around 15 mph become northwesterly in the afternoon
with gusts of 25 to 30 mph.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
Mid level trof axis shifts east with northwest flow developing
and surface high pressure building into the area. Drier air is
advected into the region with any lingering showers ending early.
Temperatures drop to lows from the upper 50s to mid 60s.
Mid level ridge builds to the west with a northwest to westerly
flow continuing across the area Friday. Surface high pressure shifts
east of the area with a southerly flow developing on its back side.
Temperatures begin to warm to readings slightly above normal, with
highs in the lower and middle 80s.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Saturday will mark the cusp of a broader pattern change and will
also be one of our last somewhat more tolerable days in terms of
temperature for the extended period. A quick moving shortwave moves
by us to our north, bringing a weak chance for a passing shower on
Saturday. However, surface high pressure will be building in, so
precip will struggle to overcome low level subsidence in place.
Strong signal continues to be in place for a significant warming
trend through the extended period as a robust 500H ridge builds in,
with the center of the dome somewhere near the Tennessee Valley
region. Similarly, an area of surface high pressure will exist along
the Atlantic Coast, keeping the ILN CWA on the western side of the
high. This results in continued southerly low level flow, keeping
that channel of warm, moist Gulf air flowing into the region.
Temperatures will slowly rise throughout the week, starting Sunday,
with Heat Advisory criteria being introduced as early as Sunday with
the majority of the CWA reaching heat indices over 100F.
Temperatures continue to rise; Monday and Tuesday look to be the
hottest days of the week, with heat indices over 105 for most areas
south of I-70. Overnight lows will offer little relief, only falling
to the mid 70s.
Unfortunately, we're in for an uncomfortable stretch. Remember, that
the longer excessive heat remains over the region, the more its
impacts are compounded.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A Mid level short wave trof tracks thru the Great Lakes with a
surface cold front moving thru the area by mid aftn. MVFR to IFR
ceilings slowly improve to VFR this aftn. Scattered shower and
thunderstorm activity is again possible today ahead of the approaching
surface cold front. Southwesterly winds at 10-15 knots persist
before veering to the west-northwest this afternoon around 15 kts
with gusts up to 25 kts.
Surface high pressure builds into the area tonight with clearing
skies and winds become light.
OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...McGinnis/AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...AR
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 19, 10:15 AM EDT---------------
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