PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 19, 4:44 AM EDT479
FXUS61 KPBZ 190844
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
444 AM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Severe thunderstorm chances increase this afternoon and evening
with the passage of a cold front. Dry weather returns Friday
with excessive heat probability increasing through the middle of
next week under high pressure.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Showers and isolated chances continue early this morning
- Severe storm chances increase between 12pm and 7pm today with
an approaching cold front.
---------------------------------------------------------------
Scattered and disorganized showers and storms are ongoing early
this morning. The severe weather threat through this morning
remains lows, activity has become outflow-dominant. As a result,
the Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been canceled early.
Rainfall rates across the region are generally 0.25 to 1" per
hour. Despite moderate areas of rain, shear (20-25kts) has
diminish the potential for training or back-building storm
formation. Therefore, the threat for flooding remain low over
the next 12 hours.
The threat for severe weather increases from early afternoon
into late this evening as a cold front approaches from the
northwest. The probability of organized convection rises
significantly after 12pm, with elevated chances above 70%
through at least 8pm. Areas east and south of Pittsburgh show
the highest joint probabilities of effect shear >= 30kts and
surface CAPE >= 1000J/kg.
High-resolution guidance indicates mid-level dry air will build
by late morning (after 9am), boosting DCAPE values above
500J/kg and enhancing the risk for damaging downdraft winds.
Strong updrafts exceeding 18,000ft will be most capable of
producing damaging wind gusts during the late afternoon hours.
In addition to severe winds, training showers and storms may
lead to localized flooding, particularly in areas that received
excessive rainfall over the last 24 to 48 hours. With saturated
soils in place, any heavy rain will quickly convert to surface
runoff in a short amount of time. With that in mind, the Weather
Prediction Center upgraded our region to a Slight Risk (2/4) for
Excessive Rainfall.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Drier conditions expected Friday into Friday night
----------------------------------------------------------------
The risk of heavy showers and strong to severe thunderstorms
will rapidly decrease after 10pm tonight as a cold front moves
through and high pressure builds from the west. However, a few
lingering showers may be observed east of Pittsburgh (near the
Laurel Highlands) through 2am to 4am.
If skies begin to clear overnight-particaularly across eastern
Ohio-patchy fog may develop early Friday morning.
Probability of dry and quiet weather is elevated Friday into
Friday night with high pressure building. Temperatures will
trend about 5 degrees above the climatological average in this
time period; mid-80s during the afternoon and mid-60s at night.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Heat headlines likely due to multi-day event
- Heat index values over 100 degrees expected
- Potentially record breaking high temperatures
- Potentially record breaking warm low temperatures
-------------------------------------------------------------------
A dangerous heat wave is forecast to impact the Ohio River
Valley from Sunday through Wednesday, driven by the
strengthening ridge axis. Gran ensemble guidance shows high
confidence (>75%) in maximum temperatures reaching or exceeding
90F Sunday through Thursday. Alarmingly, the probability of
temperatures reaching 95F or higher surpasses 50% in several
major cities across our region Monday and Tuesday. In
Pittsburgh, the urban heat island effect raises that probability
to over 70%.
In addition to the extreme daytime heat, overnight lows are
expected to remain in the low-70s, offering little relief and
contributing to increasing heat stress.
Given the duration and intensity of this event, heat-related
headlines will likely be necessary within the next 24 to 36
hours to allow communities ample time to prepare. See the
"Climate" section below for statistics on possible record high
temperatures and warm overnight lows.
By mid to late week, if convection advances over the Great Lakes
region and tracks into our area, there is an increasing
potential for downburst activity. NCAR's medium-range machine
guidance highlights the Ohio River Valley as an area for
hazardous weather (15-30% chance) during this timeframe.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Our line of thunderstorms has largely fractured and moved east of
many of our ports. Largely VFR conditions exist behind this in drier
air. VFR and light rain is expected to persist over the next couple
of ours before moisture begins to increase near sunrise ahead of an
approaching front. This should allow CIGs to degrade and by 12z all
ports sport an at least 70% chance to see MVFR CIGs with IFR
probabilities favoring ports north and west.
An initial pre-frontal trough may help to spur some more intense
shower coverage across the region during the morning hours. Daytime
heating and mixing help to raise CIGs again (possibly back to VFR
areawide) as we move into the afternoon hours and allow for a
SW'erly breeze near 20 KTs to pick up across the region. The cold
front is expected to cross through the region after 18z and can help
initiate thunderstorms. These thunderstorms have been included in
Prob30 groups for all ports at this time. Damaging wind gusts remain
the largest threat for these storms.
Outlook... Outside of lingering moisture fueling isolated to
scattered showers Friday, the outlook favors a prolonged period
of VFR Friday afternoon into next week under the influence of
high pressure and large ridging overhead.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Daily record high maximum (left) and daily record high minimum (right)
temperatures will be in jeopardy starting this coming Sunday:
Sunday June 22nd
Pittsburgh, PA: 98F (1988) 75F (1988)
Zanesville, OH: 99F (1988) 71F (1997)
Morgantown, WV: 96F (1923,1988) 73F (1988)
Dubois, PA: 92F (2024) 69F (2024)
Wheeling, WV: 95F (1923, 2024) 72F (2011)
New Philadelphia, OH: 97F (1988) 71F (1997)
Monday June 23rd
Pittsburgh, PA: 95F (1894) 76F (1888)
Zanesville, OH: 96F (1899) 70F (1975)
Morgantown, WV: 95F (1899) 71F (1957)
Dubois, PA: 88F (1966) 66F (2017)
Wheeling, WV: 94F (1948) 69F (2013)
New Philadelphia, OH: 97F (1988) 72F (1948)
Tuesday June 24th
Pittsburgh, PA: 96F (1882) 72F (1884)
Zanesville, OH: 98F (1930) 73F (1937)
Morgantown, WV: 94F (1921, 1949) 76F (1924)
Dubois, PA: 88F (1966) 67F (2013)
Wheeling, WV: 98F (1933, 1943) 73F (1908)
New Philadelphia, OH: 94F (1964) 70F (1975)
Wednesday June 25th
Pittsburgh, PA: 98F (1988) 75F (1952)
Zanesville, OH: 101F (1988) 72F (1952)
Morgantown, WV: 94F (1921, 1952, 1988) 74F (1952)
Dubois, PA: 91F (1966) 67F (2000)
Wheeling, WV: 97F (1943) 75F (1952)
New Philadelphia, OH: 92F (1966, 2002, 2005) 68F (2013)
Thursday June 26th
Pittsburgh, PA: 95F (1966) 75F (1952)
Zanesville, OH: 97F (1952) 73F (1952)
Morgantown, WV: 96F (1952) 74F (1952)
Dubois, PA: 91F (1966) 66F (2000)
Wheeling, WV: 96F (1943, 1952) 73F (1952)
New Philadelphia, OH: 99F (1988) 71F (2022)
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hefferan
NEAR TERM...Hefferan
SHORT TERM...Hefferan
LONG TERM...Hefferan
AVIATION...Cermak/AK
CLIMATE...MLB
Source:
PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 19, 4:44 AM EDT---------------
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