ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 16, 3:00 PM EDT666
FXUS61 KILN 161900
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
300 PM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms will remain possible this week each day
through Thursday. Drier weather is then expected on Friday, with
warmer and more humid conditions expected next weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Isolated to scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will continue
to shift slowly east across eastern portions of our area through the
rest of this afternoon. However, some leftover clouds and even
patchy light stratiform pcpn (from the convection off to our
southwest earlier this morning) has spread into parts of our west.
This has led to an overall minimum in instability across our area
and some uncertainty as to how much of the pcpn down across southern
Illinois and western Kentucky will hold together as it moves up
toward our area this evening. Additional short wave energy will
eventually lift northeast toward our area later tonight and this
should allow for more widespread showers and a few thunderstorms to
redevelop from the southwest late. With PWS creeping up close to 2
inches, some locally heavy rainfall will be possible later tonight,
primarily across our southwest. Lows tonight will be in the mid to
upper 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Showers and a few thunderstorms will continue on Tuesday but should
begin to taper off from the northwest through the afternoon and into
the evening as the mid level trough axis moves east of our area.
Wind fields are a bit stronger on Tuesday which could lead to a few
stronger storms, but the main threat will continue to be locally
heavy rainfall as PWs will remain around 2 inches. Highs on Tuesday
will be in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees with lows Tuesday
night in the upper 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The local area is in between systems to start on Wednesday with the
remnants of a weak system still passing to the southeast and the
incoming surface low pressure and trough moving in from the
northwest. With the weak system lingering to the southeast, PoPs do
remain across south-central Ohio Wednesday morning before additional
thunderstorm development with the main system coming in from the
west Wednesday evening.
Severe threat Wednesday evening/night: As the weak system moves
away, cloud cover should clear enough Wednesday afternoon to allow
for plentiful heating across the warm sector ahead of the
approaching cold front. The biggest uncertainty with the severe
threat over the local area remains the timing of the best forcing
Wednesday evening and into the overnight. Hot and humid conditions
may be present over the local area Wednesday, but confidence is
fairly high that storm coverage may be quite limited due to the lack
of forcing. As thunderstorms form to the west late Wednesday
afternoon and into the evening, how organized these storms remain as
they enter the local area is the second bit of uncertainty. Wind
shear values will increase as the trough approaches, but with
instability decreasing, the threat likely decreases from west to
east Wednesday night.
Convective modes and potential solutions will be more readily
available tomorrow as high-resolution models extend into the
concerned timeframe.
Thursday: As the trough slows over the Great Lakes, showers and
thunderstorms remain a possibility into the afternoon on Thursday,
but primarily southeast of the I-71 corridor. Severe threat is
expected to be very low due to the lack of time for instability to
build across the local area. Temperatures are a few degrees cooler
Thursday afternoon with the cold front moving through, but the
humidity difference will be felt Thursday night into Friday morning.
Friday-Monday: After the brief break from the humid conditions
Friday morning, the heat returns by Friday afternoon with the
humidity building into the weekend. A deep ridge of high pressure
builds over the Ohio Valley into the weekend, with temperatures
climbing close to 90 on Saturday with higher confidence in 90s for
Sunday and again on Monday. As the humidity returns, heat related
advisories may be needed with the highest confidence for Sunday and
Monday at this time.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will continue to affect
the area this afternoon. The best chance for this in the nearer term
though appears to be at the northern TAF sites as it looks like the
southern TAF sites may remain mainly dry over the next few hours. A
better chance for showers and a few thunderstorms will spread back in
from the southwest this evening and into the overnight hours as a
mid level short wave moves into the Ohio Valley. Pcpn chances will
then linger into the day on Tuesday. Generally expect VFR cigs to
prevail into tonight, but as the low levels moisten up, MVFR to IFR
cigs will develop late tonight and into Tuesday morning. Cigs will
lift back into VFR through Tuesday afternoon as the pcpn tapers off
from the west.
OUTLOOK...Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms will be
possible through Thursday, with periods of MVFR to possibly IFR
ceilings and visibilities.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hatzos
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...McGinnis
AVIATION...JGL
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 16, 3:00 PM EDT---------------
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