CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 15, 1:44 PM EDT991
FXUS61 KCLE 151744
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
144 PM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure continues to slowly build south across the area
this afternoon as surface boundary shifts towards the Ohio River
Valley. This boundary will lift north late Monday into Tuesday
as a warm front, followed by a cold front moving east on
Thursday. High pressure returns on Friday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
This afternoon, a very slow boundary continues to sag south
towards southern Ohio with high pressure building in behind it.
This has allowed for a dry day across the CWA, although plenty
of cloud cover persist across the area south of the lakeshore.
These clouds will likely persist given the moisture and weak
forcing associated with the boundary through much of the period.
There is an isolated chance of a few showers and rumbles of
thunder to impact the extreme far portion of the CWA, but
overall forcing and confidence in showers occurring is much
further south. Anything that does develop may briefly produce
heavy rainfall. There is no severe weather expected this
afternoon. Tonight, low level moisture lingers as conditions
begin to stabilize. This could result in patchy fog/low stratus
across the area resulting in reduced visibilities through day
break Monday. Confidence is not very high given the likely cloud
cover through the overnight hours, so will have to monitor
ceiling trends in the coming hours.
On Monday, the area will remain primarily dry through the early
afternoon before the aforementioned boundary begins to lift
north as a warm front. Frontogenetic forcing coupled with
increased diurnal instability of 1000-1500 J/kg and upper level
energy associated with a shortwave trough should produce a wider
coverage of showers and thunderstorms across much of the area,
with NWOH being the exception and possibly remaining dry through
the period. The current model timing of these showers suggests
showers begin to develop near the cusp of transitioning towards
a non-diurnally favorable time, so at this point not expecting
anything severe. The biggest hazard with any storms that do
develop will be gusty winds and heavy rainfall.
High temperatures on MOnday will be a bit warmer, climbing into
the upper 70s to low 80s with overnight lows both nights falling
into the 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The short term forecast period will favor a very warm and unsettled
weather pattern with a quasi-zonal mid level flow. The recent
stationary frontal boundary that has been over the Ohio Valley will
lift northward as a warm front Monday night into Tuesday. At the
same time, a weak mid level disturbance in the 500 mb flow will
track slowly from west to east across the Upper Ohio Valley on
Tuesday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be likely on
Tuesday with the highest POPs across our central and northeast Ohio
counties as well as northwest Pennsylvania. Lower POPs will favor
northwest Ohio on Tuesday. Most of the convection Tuesday will be
diurnally driven. High temperatures on Tuesday will range from the
upper 70s over NWPA and lower 80s over NEOH. The warmest
temperatures will be over NWOH on Tuesday in the middle 80s.
A shortwave trough will track through the Upper Midwest into the
Great Lakes region Wednesday into Wednesday night. The timing is
still a little uncertain for the mid-week system and will be key on
how strong the convection may be for our area. A slow moving cold
front will slide southward through the Great Lakes region into the
Upper Ohio Valley late Wednesday into Wednesday night. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms will be likely ahead of this front across
the Upper Ohio Valley. We may have to monitor trends and timing for
the potential of some stronger convection potentially as well as a
localized heavy rainfall threat. High temperatures will be in the
lower to middle 80s ahead of the front Wednesday.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The shortwave trough will track across the southern Great Lakes and
Upper Ohio Valley region on Thursday dragging a cold front through
the area. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will once again be
likely with the highest POPs across the eastern CWA. High pressure
will build in by Friday with drier and seasonably warm temperatures
for the mid to end of June. By the weekend, the overall weather
pattern will shift to a large ridge across the southern CONUS. The
Great Lakes and Upper Ohio Valley region will be in a northwest flow
around the edge of this upper level ridge. We may have to watch for
small disturbances coming down through the northwest flow around
this growing upper level ridge. The ridge will expand into the Lower
Ohio Valley by the end of the weekend with very warm temperatures
and slight chance for POPs.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z Sunday THROUGH Friday/...
Patchy MVFR ceilings continue to impact terminals across the
area this afternoon as a frontal boundary continues to sag south
towards southern Ohio. Given the lingering moisture and current
extent of cloud shield, expecting any terminals inland from Lake
Erie to potential maintain MVFR ceilings for much of the period,
although at times ceilings may become scattered allowing for
brief periods of VFR to sneak in. There is a very small
possibility that an isolated rain shower may impact KCAK or KYNG
this afternoon, although confidence was quite low so opted to
handle the potential with a TEMPO. Winds closest to the
lakeshore this afternoon have increased from the northeast at
10-12 knots, with winds inland maintaining at 5-10 knots from
the northeast.
Tonight, calming winds mixing with decent low level moisture and
a stabilizing atmosphere will result in additional period of
fog/low stratus to impact inland terminals. Have opted to drop
all those terminals to at least MVFR conditions, with the
exception of the far southern terminals (KMFD, KCAK, and KYNG)
where there is higher confidence in IFR ceilings occurring in
the early morning hours on Monday. After sunrise, all terminals
should rebound to MVFR conditions and remain dry through the end
of this TAF period with light and variable winds.
Outlook...Non-VFR possible in patchy fog and lower ceilings
early Monday morning. Non-VFR likely with periodic showers and
thunderstorms Monday through Thursday, best chance Tuesday
afternoon and Wednesday into Thursday.
&&
.MARINE...
A frontal boundary has become nearly stationary south of the lake
across central and southern Ohio. Northeast winds 10 to 18 knots
will be around today into tonight. We will have to monitor trends
for a possible marginal Small Craft Advisory conditions today with
waves 2 to 4 feet. At the very least, there will be a moderate risk
for rip currents for much of our lakeshore area today. Northeast
winds will continue Monday 5 to 10 knots. Winds will become south-
southwest 5 to 15 knots by Tuesday when a warm front pushes
northward across the lake. Southerly southwesterly winds will
continue Wednesday and Thursday 10 to 20 knots.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...04
NEAR TERM...04
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...77
AVIATION...04
MARINE...77
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 15, 1:44 PM EDT---------------
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