IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 13, 3:23 PM EDT160
FXUS63 KIWX 131923
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
323 PM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Numerous showers move through overnight with an isolated
thunderstorm possible prior to sunset. Rain may be heavy at
times.
- Rain gradually ends from west to east on Saturday.
- Becoming very warm by Monday and Tuesday with highs well into
the 80s.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 318 PM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025
A picturesque mid-latituade cyclone is evident on water vapor
this afternoon, swirling over the greater St. Louis area.
Anomalous moisture has streamed into the area with both a Gulf
and Atlantic moisture connection. The result is a period of
steady rain moving northward through Indiana. Lightning has
been sparse thus far, but a few taller cores are popping along
the IN-OH line. Moisture-rich soundings will limit the severe
weather threat to primarily pea-size hail for the tallest cores.
Instead, through Saturday morning, locally heavy rainfall is
the primary concern. South of Michigan, a deformation zone is
anticipated to take shape and given the anomalous moisture, weak
flow, and enhanced lift from a strengthening low-level jet, a
narrow area could see rain totals approaching 2 inches. The
location of this is uncertain, but lingering high pressure over
the Upper Great Lakes will generally favor the heaviest rain
south of the Michigan state line. Rain tapers off from west to
east through Saturday, but lingers well into the afternoon for
those near Portland and Lima.
As mentioned in the preceding discussion, primarily dry Sunday
through Monday but cannot completely rule out a stray pop-up storm
amid active zonal flow through the Great Lakes. Very warm as well
with rising 500-mb heights resulting in highs well into the 80s
by Tuesday. A shortwave moves through the upper Great Lakes
Tuesday brings an increased chance of showers and storms. A
second, more potent, wave moves through Wednesday. This will
bring the best opportunity for widespread thunderstorms. Nothing
is set is stone, but we'll need to monitor the risk of severe
storms with this wave. Cooler in the wake of this trough as
northwest flow is established briefly.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 153 PM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025
Disturbance pushing north and eastward is currently bringing
rain showers and slightly lowering cigs and vsbys with VFR
conditions. However, cigs and vsbys will continue to
deteriorate tonight into the overnight period bringing MVFR to
IFR conditions after 22z Fri for KFWA and after 02z Sat for
KSBN through the remainder of this TAF period. Left mention of
TS out of the forecast with low confidence of occurrence, but
an isolated thunderstorm or two is not out of the question.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Brown
AVIATION...Andersen
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 13, 3:23 PM EDT---------------
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