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370 FXUS64 KLIX 141730AFDLIXArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service New Orleans LA1230 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE....SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday Night) Issued at 1219 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025Weak troughing aloft will keep us in a somewhat unsettled patternthrough the weekend with a fairly typical diurnal ebb and flow toconvective activity. With surface high pressure centered over thewestern Atlantic, low level winds will maintain an onshorecomponent and continue to bring Gulf moisture into the local area. Ample moisture and an atmospheric profile conducive for convectionwill only be waiting on a trigger - namely in the form of daytimeheating. With that said, expect isolated to scattered showers andstorms to begin popping up after sunrise, with a maximum in coverage and intensity during the afternoon hours, and dissipationaround or shortly after sunset. Afternoon temperatures should top out around or just over 90degrees today and tomorrow, which is near normal for this time ofyear. However, with PW running 110-120% of normal, the extramoisture in the air will inhibit radiational cooling causingovernight lows to remain warmer than normal, only dropping into the mid 70s most locations, with upper 70s or even lower 80s alongthe immediate SE LA coast.Current forecast indicates maximum afternoon heat index valuespeaking in the 100-105 degree range which is shy of the heatadvisory criteria, but there could be a few spots that hit 108temporarily - especially in the wake of any isolated showers ifthere isn't sufficient outflow to cool the temperature.&&.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday) Issued at 1219 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025With the weak troughing/break between ridges remaining in place tostart the week, Monday through Wednesday will generally be repeats of the weekend, with relatively high rain chances and nearto warmer than normal temperatures. The upper pattern will flatten out by midweek, with weak ridging building in to end the week. This should result in a return to more typical summertime POPs by Thursday/Friday, which is lower than what the NBM is indicating at the present time. Have madesome adjustments to trend a bit lower than the NBM POPs Thurs/Frigiven the recent high bias of the NBM in the extended and the factthat with upper ridging building in, we really should see adecrease in convective coverage.&&.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS)Issued at 1219 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025Outside of convection, VFR conditions will generally prevailthrough the period. Scattered to numerous showers and storms inthe area will lead to brief periods of lower cigs and vsbys this afternoon and have included TEMPO or PROB30 groups at eachterminal during the time of most likely impacts. Have generallykept these mentions to MVFR conditions. While some of the heaviershowers and storms could lead to IFR or even LIFR conditions,probability of these conditions occurring at any given site/timeare too low to mention in the TAFs at this time and will need tobe handled with short term amendments. The only other impact willbe patchy fog overnight, with the most likely location of impactbeing MCB. A general repeat of today's weather is expectedtomorrow, and future TAF packages will likely need to introduceafternoon convective impacts which are currently beyond the end ofthe TAF period except at MSY.&&.MARINE...Issued at 1219 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025High pressure centered east of the local area will keep onshoreflow in place through the period, generally 15 kts or lighter.Expect to see daily showers and storms, with higher winds and seasin the vicinity of this activity.&&.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...MCB 71 88 72 89 / 20 60 30 80 BTR 73 90 74 90 / 20 60 30 90 ASD 73 91 73 90 / 20 60 30 80 MSY 77 91 77 90 / 20 60 20 90 GPT 75 88 75 89 / 30 50 30 80 PQL 74 90 74 90 / 20 50 30 80 &&.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...LA...None.GM...None.MS...None.GM...None.&&$$SHORT TERM...DMLONG TERM....DMAVIATION...DMMARINE...DM
