LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 15, 10:44 PM EDT962
FXUS63 KLMK 160244
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1044 PM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are expected through the
evening hours. The main threats with this activity are heavy
rainfall and lightning. Localized flooding is possible where the
heaviest rainfall occurs.
* Patchy dense fog is possible late tonight into Monday morning.
* Unsettled weather continues next week, with additional rounds of
showers and thunderstorms expected. The main risk early in the
week will be isolated flash flooding.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1043 PM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025
Numerous showers and storms from this afternoon have begun to
dissipate. Some showers remain in an east-west orientation over
Washington, Nelson, Mercer, and Boyle counties, which have flash
flooding ongoing. These showers are expected to dissipate soon,
allowing the waters to recede. Additionally, a line is moving in
from Northern Tennessee into southwest-central Kentucky, which may
bring one to one and a half inches of rainfall. Once precipitation
dissipates, stratus will begin to develop and slowly lower, leading
to a reduction in visibility. Patchy dense fog in the early morning
is likely.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 336 PM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025
Weak low pressure continues to drift east across West Virginia this
afternoon, with a subtle sfc boundary extending WSW into the Lower
OH Valley. Upstream, a stronger mid-level shortwave trough is moving
over the Ozarks. In between these two features is brief shortwave
ridging that will be in place over our region into tonight. While
forcing and steering flow/deep shear are quite weak, a smattering of
showers have developed as we have easily achieved convective temps.
A moist, unstable airmass remains in place with PW values of 1.8-1.9
inches and a tall, skinny CAPE profile. Though quite small, these
showers this afternoon will remain capable of brief heavy downpours.
Localized ponding/flooding issues could arise due to moisture-laden
air, slow cell motion, and wet soils.
These showers will diminish in coverage and intensity with sunset,
with drier conditions overnight. A few spotty showers may linger,
particularly over south-central KY. Some partial clearing will again
promote the development of fog in the humid, stagnant air. Mid and
high clouds will increase early Monday morning ahead of the trough
and ongoing convection to our west. Temperatures will fall into the
upper 60s and low 70s tonight before stabilizing. Low stratus should
fill in and linger through the morning hours.
The mid-level shortwave trough approaches the Mid-MS Valley tomorrow
before moving ENE over central KY and southern IN Monday night into
early Tuesday. Diurnal sfc heating and destabilization of the still
very moist airmass, as well as the approaching wave, will promote at
least scattered showers and storms Monday afternoon. The arrival of
stronger forcing, including a 25-30 kt LLJ nosing in from the
southwest, will enhance shower/storm coverage Monday evening and
overnight. So unlike recent nights, this round of convection will
not diminish diurnally. Will keep high PoPs overnight into early
Tuesday morning.
The overall severe weather threat on Monday remains low. Deep-layer
shear only tops out around 20-25 kts, though available instability
should be sufficient for isolated strong updrafts. The main concern
will be locally heavy rainfall/isolated flash flooding. Convective
intensity will be tempered by waning instability Monday night. Highs
Monday will reach the low to mid 80s, and lows Monday night will
again be in the upper 60s to low 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 336 PM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025
Tuesday through Tuesday Night...
The mid/upper level shortwave trough swings east of the area by
Tuesday night. But scattered to numerous showers and storms will
remain possible through Tuesday. Some stronger storms will be
capable of torrential rainfall, gusty winds, and lightning.
Depending on convective evolution Monday afternoon through Monday
night, FFG may be fairly low in some areas. Will have to watch
this period closely for at least isolated instances of flash
flooding.
Conditions do look to dry out Tuesday night into the first part of
Wednesday with rising heights behind the departing wave.
Wednesday through Saturday...
A quasi-zonal upper-level pattern will continue into Wednesday, with
additional shortwave troughs sliding quickly across the CONUS.
Medium-range guidance continues to suggest that the most potent of
these systems will cross just north of the Ohio Valley Wednesday
into Thursday, bringing stronger flow aloft and better forcing for
showers and thunderstorms, some of which could be strong. AI/ML
guidance and CIPS analogs continue to suggest that the Wednesday
evening into Thursday morning period could bring an elevated
potential for strong to severe storms, which is consistent with the
SPC Day 4 Outlook. The best forcing and moisture may remain just
north of the area; however, given the amount of lead time, we will
continue to monitor as shifts in guidance could bring the better
severe potential into central KY and southern IN.
Thursday, additional showers and storms are possible as a "cold
front" moves through the region. The air mass behind this front
should be drier, but is unlikely to bring much of a cool down in
temperatures heading into next weekend. In fact, there is fairly
good agreement in medium-range guidance in upper level ridging
building across the eastern US next weekend. This kind of pattern
would suppress thunderstorm chances and support seasonably hot
temperatures, with highs likely making it into the upper 80s and
lower 90s.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 723 PM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025
VFR conditions currently with scattered showers and very few storms
over the region. As the sun sets, showers and storms will dissipate.
The remainder of the night will feature calm to light winds and
developing stratus. In the early morning, this stratus will lower
and reduce visibility. Similar to the previous morning. Once the sun
rises, this will allow CIGs and VIS to improve. In the afternoon on
Monday, showers and storms will once again develop over the region
bringing heavy rain and lightning.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JPH
SHORT TERM...EBW
LONG TERM...EBW/CSG
AVIATION...SRW
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 15, 10:44 PM EDT---------------
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