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284 FXUS64 KLIX 130841AFDLIXArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service New Orleans LA341 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE....SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)Issued at 236 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025Deep moisture and plenty of CAPE(4k+J) will continue to help things get going each day. This is very diurnally driven but there is some upper level dynamic weak suppport from an upper low to the north trailing a braod trough axis through west/central LA and east TX. The main source of getting things going is heating durin the day. The other source of heating is being observed this morning as well, SST matching or very close to convective temps. This also means that PW values are rising a well. This all makes sense as the area moves under a souterly flow regime instead of a NW or west flow. The storms with this type of flow are mainly heavy rainfall makers. This does not mean there can be no severe storms but they wouldn't be the same in number as NW flow. The strongest storms usually develop during the hottest part of the day in this flow instead of any given time with NW flow. The rain chances will be higher than normal for this time of year as this general troughing remains. But eventhough numbers are around 70%, not all locations will get rain. One can look at probabilities in several different ways but two ways are 70% chance of measuring or a 30% of not measuring. Training could be an issue as well which could cause some temporary localized flooding issues.&&.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)Issued at 236 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025The daily sh/ts coverage looks to remain well into the extended with some days having higher chances that others. Monday is one of those higher prob days as we will become the battle ground for southerly flow environment and NW flow moving systems into the area with the deep moisture availability. Basically, we are in a slightly higher than normal precip summer regime. And any given day can give an isolated heavy rain and/or severe storm.&&.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS) Issued at 236 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025Cigs will cover most terminals today and could be in MVFR range for BTR and MCB. But even these two sites will join all others with VFR cigs by mid to late morning. Most areas will remain in VFR even overnight tonight with the exception of MCB once again possibly seeing MVFR cigs overnight.&&.MARINE...Issued at 236 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025Southerly winds at 15kt or less is expected throughout this fcast. We are in a very typical summer pattern with respect to the northern gulf waters. There is a good chance of sh/ts each day and night. Some of these could become strong causing winds to shift and rise abruptly.&&.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...MCB 88 72 90 73 / 70 30 70 30 BTR 89 75 92 75 / 80 30 80 20 ASD 89 75 92 74 / 70 20 70 20 MSY 91 78 92 78 / 80 20 80 20 GPT 88 77 90 77 / 60 20 70 30 PQL 88 75 90 74 / 60 20 70 30 &&.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...LA...None.GM...None.MS...None.GM...None.&&$$SHORT TERM...TELONG TERM....TEAVIATION...TEMARINE...TE
