IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 9, 7:27 PM EDT764
FXUS63 KIWX 092327
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
727 PM EDT Mon Jun 9 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Isolated showers and storms will slowly exit the area this
evening.
- A period of dry and warmer weather is expected midweek.
- Shower and storm chances return late this week into this
weekend.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 727 PM EDT Mon Jun 9 2025
Latest radar trends show convection struggling immensely given
displacement from minor 500 J/kg MLCAPE bubble over south-
central MI. While storms will continue in our E/NE zones for a
few more hours with a low risk of gusty winds, did not feel it
was worth continuing the watch and have therefore canceled all
counties. No other changes to the going forecast with quiet
weather anticipated later tonight through Wed.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 201 PM EDT Mon Jun 9 2025
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms remain on target for
late this afternoon as a potent vort max tracks east through lower
Michigan sending a secondary cold front through. Track of the upper
wave on the southern periphery of a cold pocket aloft (-20C at 500
mb impressive for early June) favors areas along and north of the US
24 corridor in IN/MI for greatest shower/storm coverage 20-00z.
The potential for a marginally severe cell or two (wind/small
hail) remains given the inverted V soundings, steep lapse rates
and strong flow/shear/forcing. However, lacking instability
(MLCAPE ~500 j/kg) should limit the convective vigor overall.
Large scale subsidence in the wake of the upper trough will promote
dry/quiet wx into Tuesday and Wednesday, with Wednesday a
significantly warmer day as low level southwest flow develops under
building heights aloft. These warmer temperatures remain the primary
wx story into Wednesday night and Thursday with the bulk of
available model guidance setting up a west-to-east oriented sfc
frontal boundary just north of the area under flattened quasi-zonal
flow aloft. This boundary then oscillates in the vicinity of the
Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes Friday into the weekend with
periodic chances for showers and storms (low predictability -
confidence).
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 727 PM EDT Mon Jun 9 2025
Showers and isolated storms expected to pass north of KFWA in
the next few hours with no impact to the terminal anticipated.
Otherwise VFR conditions expected through the period given very
dry low levels. A few gusts around 20 kts expected Tue afternoon
but otherwise weather will remain tranquil.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ043-
046.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AGD
DISCUSSION...Steinwedel
AVIATION...AGD
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 9, 7:27 PM EDT---------------
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