JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 12, 10:54 PM EDT144
FXUS63 KJKL 130254
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1054 PM EDT Thu Jun 12 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Temperatures will be above normal through Friday.
- Unsettled weather returns to end this week - continuing through
the first half of next week, with showers and thunderstorms
likely each day.
- Some strong storms are possible from Friday into the weekend
with strong wind gusts and torrential downpours possible.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1054 PM EDT THU JUN 12 2025
Not too many changes were made to the forecast. Made some tweaks
to the sky and PoP grids to account for recent satellite and radar
trends. Otherwise, blended in recent obs and sent zones with
freshened wording,
UPDATE Issued at 752 PM EDT THU JUN 12 2025
23Z sfc analysis shows a large areas of high pressure centered
off to our east. A few showers have moved across the southern
parts of our area, closer to the TN and VA borders. But these are
starting to settle, and coverage is expected to decrease as we
head further into the evening. Currently temperatures are running
in the upper 70s to near 80 in the north to the low to mid 70s in
the south and east where rain has cooled things down some.
Meanwhile, dewpoints are generally in the upper 60s to around 70,
making it feel fairly humid. Have updated the forecast mainly to
add in the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. PoP grids
continue to remain on track. These minor adjustments have been
sent to the NDFD and web servers.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 310 PM EDT THU JUN 12 2025
At 1830z, regional radar mosaic shows showers and thunderstorms
developing over the Cumberland River/South Fork Kentucky river
basins and slowly drifting north northeast. Outside of any showers
or thunderstorms, sunshine is filtered through extensive high cloud
cover, smoky haze aloft, and a cumulus field. Temperatures are
seasonably warm, ranging in the lower to middle 80s. The latest
surface analysis shows surface high pressure departing into the
Western Atlantic. Meanwhile, weak low pressure is situated over
northeast Texas. Aloft, a weak elongated 500H low is slowly
spinning over the southern Plains under a more zonal flow over the
over the Northern Tier of the CONUS.
The upper level low and its surface reflection will slowly drift
northeast to over the Mid-Mississippi Valley by 12z Saturday
while gradually transitioning into an open wave. Pulses of energy
ejecting out of the low/trough will cross the Commonwealth through
the short-term period. The first more substantial energy
pulse/disturbance crosses the JKL CWA through this evening. A
second more notable pulse crosses on Friday evening followed by
another pulse early Saturday. The most widespread convection can
be expected ahead of/along these disturbances. However, a stray
shower or storm cannot be ruled out just about anywhere/anytime
from this evening onward as southerly flow brings in increasing
humid air mass. (PWATs climb to around 1.90 inches by Friday
night). While showers and thunderstorms this evening and early
Friday should be of the benign summer variety, increasing shear
ahead of the upper trough will favor more organized multi-cell and
perhaps even some transient supercell structures by Friday
afternoon/night. Isolated instances of high water or a stray
severe thunderstorm cannot be ruled out beginning Friday
afternoon, given this environment.
In sensible terms, look for isolated to widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms over southern Kentucky to slowly drift north before
dissipating later this evening. An isolated shower or storm will
then be possible overnight, though most locations will likely remain
dry. Fog is favored to redevelop in the favored river valleys and
also in areas which experience rainfall. Temperatures will be warmer
than last night with lows in the mid to upper 60s. Looking ahead to
Friday, clouds will thicken with rising chances for showers and
thunderstorms. A few of the storms could be intense with damaging
winds, hail, and heavy rainfall. Look for high temperatures mainly
in the middle 80s. The shower and thunderstorm threat continues
Friday night, with minimum temperatures forecast to once again range
in the mid to upper 60s.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 420 PM EDT THU JUN 12 2025
The period is expected to begin with an upper level ridge across
portions of the western Atlantic extending to the eastern Gulf and
centered north of the Bahamas. Meanwhile, another upper level
ridge is progged to be centered near the US/Mexico border Rio
Grande Valley area with ridging north into portions of the Rockies.
Meanwhile, a weak upper level low/shortwave trough is expected to
be over the mid MS Valley to Lower OH Valley vicinity early on
Saturday with a couple of additional shortwaves over the Central
and Northern Plains at that point with an upper level trough off
the west coast of the Conus. At the surface, a quasi stationary
frontal zone is expected to extend into the mid Atlantic
states/Delmarva to southwest PA to near the IA and MN border and
then west and northwest to MT. A weak surface reflection of the
upper low/trough may also be present near the confluence of the OH
and MS Rivers. Early Saturday, 12Z HREF mean PW on the order of
1.4 to 1.75 inches.
Over the weekend, riding is expected to build north into the
Rockies and portions of the Central to Southern plains with
ridging also remaining in place from the Gulf across the Bahamas
to south and southeast of Bermuda. Meanwhile, the weak upper
low/500 mb trough axis will gradually move east across the Lower
OH Valley to the mid OH Valley including eastern KY with multiple
weaker shortwaves also progged to cross the area. The frontal zone
may sag south from just south of the Great Lakes to near the OH
River as one or more multiple sfc waves move along along, though
eastern KY should be in the warm sector the entire weekend. 00Z
LREF mean having PW on the order of 1.6 to 1.9 inches by
afternoon values are forecast to remain near those levels over the
weekend, decreasing slightly toward dawn on Monday. This scenario
will lead to unsettled weather and pending the degree of heating
and solar insolation each day, a strong storm or two is possible
with some gusty winds. Convection should generally peak each
afternoon and evening, though smaller chances will linger
through each night. However, the main concern will be torrential
downpours from showers and storms the possibility of storms to
possibly train over a few locations and lead to isolated
instances of high water or flash flooding. WPC has highlighted the
entire region for this possibility on Saturday and Sunday.
Diurnal ranges will be limited by the moist airmass and
anticipated periodic rounds of showers and rather persistent
cloud cover.
From Monday to the middle of next week, upper level ridging is
expected to parts of the Central Conus though flattening as it
does so while upper ridging remains from the Gulf to south of
Bermuda. Multiple shortwaves moving from the eastern Pacific
across portions of the Northwest Conus and Southern Canada
followed by a trough moving into and across the western Conus
should aid in the western ridging flattening and more confined
from the Pacific across the Baja region and possibly southwest
Conus to the Southern Plains. Those shortwaves will eventually
move to the MS Valley and Great Lakes and across portions of the
OH Valley. At the same time, the slow moving frontal zone near the
OH River over the weekend is progged to lift north and northeast
to the mid Atlantic states to the Great Lakes to upper MS Valley
to Northern Plains and remain there or even further north through
the period. Mean PW should remain in the 1.4 to 1.75 range through
the end of the period from Monday to Thursday. Unsettled weather
should remain with shower and storm chances peaking generally each
afternoon and evening. Some strong storms cannot be completely
ruled out around midweek, but lack of more substantial bulk shear
should be a limiting factor to storm strength, longevity, and
overall coverage of more robust activity. As noted above, ENS
based and experimental GEFS Based Probabilistic guidance supports
the possibility of strong to marginally on Saturday and perhaps
the middle of next week as well. Trends in possible CAPE and shear
and prob guidance will be monitored.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
ISSUED AT 752 PM EDT THU JUN 12 2025
VFR conditions currently dominate across the area right now.
Showers and storms from the afternoon are starting to die out and
will continue to do so through the remainder of the evening. Winds
are currently calm to light and variable and will remain so
through the night. JKL, SME, and LOZ could see some fog bring MVFR
visibilities tonight as it forms in the valleys. By 13z or so,
that fog will lift, with VFR conditions returning. Scattered
showers and storms return to the area through the remainder of the
TAF period, and would bring gusty winds and lower visibility
should they impact any TAF sites, warranting a PROB30 mention.
Outside of storms, winds are expected to remain fairly light,
generally around 5kts or less.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAS
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...HAS
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 12, 10:54 PM EDT---------------
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