MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 10, 12:21 PM CDT ...New Aviation...363
FXUS64 KMOB 101721
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1221 PM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025
...New Aviation...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 346 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025
Through Wednesday Night...
The upper trough over the eastern CONUS will lift northeast,
followed by an upper ridge building over the southeast states
through midweek. We resume a diurnal pattern through the near
term with scattered showers and thunderstorms expected to occur
across the northern half of the forecast area this afternoon and
Wednesday afternoon, with numerous showers and storms across the
southern half near a developing seabreeze. With strong insolation
and surface heating today, we are anticipating an afternoon
environment with significant MLCAPE values ranging from 3,000 to
4,000j/kg. Therefore, a few of the stronger pulse-type storms this
afternoon may produce gusty winds up to 40-45 mph and hail up to
one-half inch in diameter. Frequent lightning and the threat of
localized flooding remains. A High Rip Current risk through this
afternoon will settle to Low midweek.
High temperatures today and Wednesday will range from 87 to 92
degrees. Low temperatures tonight should be between 66 to 72
degrees inland, with middle 70s along the coast. /22
Thursday Through Monday...
Unsettled summer like pattern looks to prevail as we approach the
weekend with broad southwesterly flow across the area. An upper
level low will likely get squished between two large highs in an
omega block over Texas keeping us on the soggy east side. As we
approach the end of the week and into the weekend, a stalled
surface boundary that has plagued us the front half of the week
will have mixed out leading to a more traditional summertime
pattern with storms developing along the advancing seabreeze and
remnant boundaries. Storms will likely be a little more widespread
than a typical summer day as some upper shortwave troughs will
likely progress through the southwesterly flow and the presence of
the weak upper level low centered to our west. PWATS will be in
the 1.5 to 2 inch range each day allowing for efficient rain
processes with any storms. While a more focused heavy rainfall
event doesn't look likely, continued rounds of rain throughout the
week could result in localized flash flooding. Temperatures will
continue to be on the warm side with highs in the 90s and with all
the moisture, do not expect any relief from the mugginess this
week. BB/8
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025
Generally VFR flight category prevails outside of any showers and
storms this afternoon. Temporary reductions in ceiling and
visibility can be expected underneath any given storm. Expect VFR
flight category to prevail tonight into Wednesday morning. MM/25
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 351 PM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025
A light to moderate southwesterly flow today will become light
southeasterly to southerly through the remainder of the week.
Shower and thunderstorm chances will remain high through Saturday.
Overnight convection developing over open Gulf waters may contain
waterspouts in the late night/early morning period. Otherwise, no
impacts are expected other than locally higher winds and seas
being possible near thunderstorms. /22
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 71 88 72 88 74 88 74 88 / 30 70 20 70 30 80 30 90
Pensacola 75 87 76 88 77 87 77 85 / 40 70 30 70 40 80 60 90
Destin 78 89 78 89 79 88 78 88 / 40 70 30 70 50 80 60 90
Evergreen 69 91 70 91 71 91 72 89 / 20 60 20 60 30 80 30 80
Waynesboro 67 91 69 91 70 91 71 89 / 10 40 10 60 30 70 20 80
Camden 66 88 68 89 70 89 71 87 / 20 40 10 50 30 60 30 80
Crestview 70 91 70 92 71 90 72 88 / 30 80 20 70 30 90 30 90
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 10, 12:21 PM CDT ...New Aviation...---------------
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