JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 9, 3:24 AM EDT857
FXUS63 KJKL 090724
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
324 AM EDT Mon Jun 9 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Strong to severe thunderstorms may occur this afternoon into the
evening, with the potential for damaging wind gusts and locally
heavy rainfall.
- High temperatures will be near or a little below normal through
midweek, with warmer readings arriving for late week.
- Humid conditions are expected with increasing chances for
showers and thunderstorms Friday through Sunday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 324 AM EDT MON JUN 9 2025
A large and deep upper low over the Upper Mississippi River
Valley early this morning digs into the Upper Great Lakes Region
this afternoon before lifting northeast into southeastern Canada
Tuesday. This system will push a cold front across Mid-Ohio Valley
Region this afternoon and evening.
A southwesterly mid-level jet streak will be slowly weakening as a
cold front moves east across the Ohio River Valley this afternoon
and evening. However, it will be impinging over a warm sector
characterized by surface temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s,
with dew points in the lower to mid 60s, yielding CAPE values in the
1000-2000 J/kg range, with isolated higher pockets. Will thus expect
a few severe storms to be possible along and ahead of the cold
front, with SPC continuing a Slight Risk for almost all of eastern
Kentucky for today.
Precipitation ends and skies clear quickly behind the cold front
passage late this evening into the overnight, which will most likely
result in widespread valley fog formation, especially where rain
occurs.
Another shortwave moves across the area Tuesday and will bring a low
potential for a few post-frontal rain showers under the upper trough
axis over the area. Removed any mention of thunder from the forecast
at this time as sufficient instability to support such appears
extremely limited.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 324 AM EDT MON JUN 9 2025
Mostly dry weather is expected for the mid-week period as weak upper
ridging will be over or just upstream of the region, with dry
mid-levels and relatively dry lower levels. However, by Friday
warm advection increases with dew points rising from the mid to
upper 50s the first half of Thursday to mid 60s Friday to upper
60s to mid 70s for the weekend ahead of a slow-moving upper
system over the middle of the country. Thus, shower and
thunderstorm chances will be on the increase to end the week and
heading into the weekend, with widespread shower and thunderstorms
indicated by Sunday afternoon as this is when the best agreement
exists for upper trough axis crossing the Ohio River Valley. Any
potential severe weather or excessive rainfall risk late week
through the weekend should become clearer as the week progresses.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 127 AM EDT MON JUN 9 2025
For the remainder of the overnight period, utilized TEMPO groups
for MVFR fog at KLOZ and KSME, but these may need to be updated to
prevailing groups and for IFR or lower conditions between now and
12z. Fog will dissipate Monday morning, allowing VFR conditions
to return areawide. This lasts until mid- to late afternoon, at
which point showers and thunderstorms should begin to enter the
forecast area from the northwest with sub-VFR conditions.
Shower/thunderstorm activity should exit east before the end of
the forecast period, with likely VFR conditions developing aside
from valley fog formation in southeastern and far eastern
Kentucky.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...CMC
AVIATION...CMC
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 9, 3:24 AM EDT---------------
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