ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 8, 11:04 PM EDT615
FXUS61 KILN 090304
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1104 PM EDT Sun Jun 8 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A stronger frontal system will push through the region on Monday,
providing a renewed chance for showers and storms. Seasonably warm
and humid conditions will prevail until some drier air returns in the
wake of the front by Tuesday. Drier conditions should persist
through Thursday before a seasonably warm and humid airmass returns
late in the week, bringing additional chances for showers and storms.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CAMs do depict the current diminishing of convection as it heads
across Indiana, so continuing previous slight delay of precip onset.
The initial few hours of the 00Z CAMs do still depict an enhanced LL
jet developing between 10-12z, so still expecting some increase in
coverage during the overnight hours as the boundary approaches SE
Indiana. Backed off of the timing still a little more, along with the
precip probability.
Overnight low temperatures still look good, generally with lower 60s
under increasing clouds and increase SW flow. Cool spot will be in
the east, closer to 60 where clearing will linger a little longer.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Stacked deep low pressure which will track into the Great Lakes
Monday. A low level southerly jet which increases to 35 to 40 kts
will allow moisture/clouds and forcing to increase. A narrow band of
showers with embedded thunderstorms to move into the western
counties around sunrise and move east thru the area thru the aftn.
The best chance for some diurnally-driven destabilization on Monday
looks to be east of the I-71 corridor. This instability combined with
strengthening mid level flow may lead to stronger updrafts. Strong to
severe storms will be possible with damaging winds being the main
threat Monday afternoon across ILN/s eastern/southeastern counties.
The main axis of precipitation will shift east with chances
decreasing from west to east by late afternoon. A few additional
showers will be possible across west central Ohio late in the day
into the evening as anther shortwave rotates around the mid level
low and a secondary front moves into the area. High pressure begins
to nose into the area Monday night with clouds decreasing overnight.
Highs on Monday will influenced by clouds and pcpn moving through
the area, with temperatures generally topping out in the mid to
upper 70s.
Lows drop off into the mid to upper 50s Monday night under clearing skies
and light winds.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure builds into the Ohio Valley from west on Tuesday into
Tuesday night. Westerly flow will allow temperatures to remain below
average with forecast highs in the 70s. .
The center of the surface high shifts east of the region on
Wednesday. Southerly winds develop west of the high leading to
increasing temperatures and humidity for the second half of the
week. Highs reach 80 on Wednesday and the middle 80s Thursday and
Friday. Rain chances increase on Friday through the weekend due to
increasing instability over the area and a weak boundary working in
from the north.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Gusts across the region beginning to wane, as briefly drier
conditions return through at least 06z. Clouds will scatter from west
to east through that time.
The next approaching system more organized than the departing low
from earlier today, dropping down from the western Great Lakes. A
developing LLJ of 35-40kts and SW flow will allow moisture to retake
the column progressing from NW to SE, with conditions going from VFR
to ceilings lowering to MVFR after about 14z-16z as the narrow band
of showers and embedded thunderstorms spreads across the region. Did
bring in a PROB30 for thunderstorms across all TAF sites, with
confidence a little higher after about 16z at KLCK/KCMH. MVFR
ceilings especially from about 12-14z through 18-21z, with
occasional lower MVFR to even IFR CIGS and VSBYS possible in showers
and storms. Improvement back to VFR after about 20-22z at
KCVG/KDAY/KLUK/KILN, but not until 22z or later for KCMH/KLCK.
Gust winds as high as 20kts after 17z.
OUTLOOK...Storms will be possible again Friday night into Saturday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for OHZ046-055-056-065.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JDR/AR
NEAR TERM...JDR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...Campbell
AVIATION...JDR
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 8, 11:04 PM EDT---------------
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