LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 8, 6:49 AM CDT ...New AVIATION...986
FXUS64 KLIX 081149
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
649 AM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025
Upper ridge axis extended southward from New Mexico into Mexico
this morning. Upper troughs were noted over the Canadian Prairie
Provinces into the western Great Lakes, as well as off the
southern California coast. There were 3 separate complexes of
thunderstorms to our north...1) over Alabama and eastern
Mississippi, 2) over the Arklatex area, and 3) over the Texas
Panhandle. Locally, skies were clear to partly cloudy at 3 AM CDT
with temperatures ranging from the mid 70s to lower 80s, with dew
points in the mid 70s. Any thunderstorms were well to our north,
north of Interstate 20.
Dual concerns in the forecast today. One is the potential for
severe weather this afternoon through Monday, but primarily during
the overnight hours tonight. The second concern is heat-related,
with a Heat Advisory already in effect for later today for the
southeast Louisiana parishes bordering on Lake Pontchartrain.
The Alabama-eastern Mississippi cluster of storms is already
passing northeast of the area and isn't a factor in the forecast.
However, the other two complexes will be. The upper level flow is
northwesterly across the area and is expected to carry the
Arklatex complex toward the area later this morning and this
afternoon. Most of the convection allowing models show this area
of storms weakening as it approaches the area this afternoon. CAPE
values are in the 2000-3000 (locally higher) J/kg range, lapse
rates in the 6.5-7.5 C/km range and DCAPE values in excess of
1000, so storms would have at least some potential for strong
winds. Even if the storms don't quite make it into the area, they
are expected to lay out a boundary somewhere close to the
northwest portion of our area this afternoon. This will provide a
pathway for the complex currently over the Texas Panhandle area to
follow later tonight into Monday morning as it weakens. This will
reinforce a boundary to focus potential development later in the
day on Monday. Of the 3 rounds, the last one may provide the best
opportunity to produce severe weather, with the greatest threat
from about Interstate 55 eastward north of Lake Pontchartrain.
We'll also need to monitor the threat for excessive rainfall for
the potential for multiple rounds to track over the same area,
wherever the boundary ends up. With precipitable water values near
1.8 inches, a quick 1-2 inches is possible with each round,
possibly producing runoff issues in urban areas.
With highs in the lower and middle 90s expected this afternoon,
heat index values in the 105 to 110 range are possible in the
parishes surrounding Lake Pontchartrain. Elsewhere, a few spots
may reach those values, but confidence is lower there. Won't rule
out the need for an additional advisory on Monday, depending on
how the precipitation and cloud scenarios play out today and
tonight.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025
Tuesday and potentially Wednesday could be pretty similar to
Monday when it comes to convective development in zonal to
northwesterly upper flow across the area. Scattered to numerous
showers and storms will be possible both days, especially during
the afternoon and early evening hours, with a few possibly on the
strong side. As we get toward the end of the week, ridging is
expected to build over Florida with troughing over Texas. This
should keep the most favorable conditions for storm development
off to the west of the area for Thursday into Saturday, but there
will be more than sufficient moisture available for at least
scattered development each day. Those should be a bit more of what
we think of as a "normal" summer day with thunderstorms.
Temperature ranges shouldn't be unusual for mid June, with highs
within a few degrees of 90 and lows in the 70s. No significant
adjustments made to NBM temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 643 AM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025
Mainly VFR conditions around sunrise this morning, although KMCB
reporting IFR ceilings. Likely to be a brief period of MVFR
ceilings at several terminals this morning as cumulus field
becomes well-developed. Those cloud bases are likely to lift above
FL030 at most or all terminals by midday as full heating is
reached. Will carry PROB30 TSRA at most terminals late this
afternoon and early evening for the potential for storms to our
northwest to arrive. Confidence isn't real strong for pinpointing
a 2-3 hour window at a particular terminal. The eventual life
cycle of these storms should help determine whether there will be
a late night second round of storms as some of the convection
allowing models depict.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 330 AM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025
Not surprisingly for June, the main concerns for marine operations
will be the threat of thunderstorms, especially from Monday
onward. Localized hazardous wind and sea conditions will be
possible with storms. Overall, winds should maintain an onshore
component through the week, and could briefly reach or slightly
exceed 15 knots, especially over the eastern waters during the
evening hours each day.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 91 73 89 71 / 60 40 70 70
BTR 94 76 92 75 / 50 20 60 50
ASD 93 75 91 74 / 50 20 50 50
MSY 94 78 93 77 / 50 10 40 40
GPT 92 76 91 76 / 50 50 50 70
PQL 92 75 90 74 / 40 60 60 70
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
for LAZ046>048-057-058-060-064-076>090.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...RW
Source:
LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 8, 6:49 AM CDT ...New AVIATION...---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
