IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 8, 6:44 AM EDT195
FXUS63 KIND 081044
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
644 AM EDT Sun Jun 8 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Some showers will linger into early afternoon, mainly east
- More showers and some thunderstorms return tonight. A strong storm
is possible west this evening.
- Dry with warming trend mid-week
- Precipitation chances return late week into the weekend
&&
.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 251 AM EDT Sun Jun 8 2025
Early This Morning...
Surface low pressure and an upper trough were bringing showers and
isolated thunderstorms to central Indiana early this morning. As
they move east during the early morning hours, coverage of rain will
gradually diminish from west to east. Will have PoPs reflect this
trend.
Some light fog is possible as well thanks to the moist lower
atmosphere and light winds.
Today...
By 12Z the surface low will be east of the area, but a trough will
extend west from the low back into central Indiana. This will help
keep some scattered showers across mainly the eastern forecast area
during the morning into early afternoon. Will have some chance PoPs
to account for this.
During the remainder of the afternoon, some brief surface ridging
will build in, providing dry conditions and some sunshine. This will
allow temperatures to peak in the middle 70s east to around 80 west.
Tonight...
A weak cold front will move into the forecast area this evening, on
the eastern portion of an approaching upper trough. The front will
slow down during the night and weaken further as upper flow becomes
closer to parallel to it. The front will have enough forcing and
moisture with it to generate some scattered showers and storms as it
moves in.
During the overnight, 850mb winds increase some, bringing in more
moisture. This will increase the coverage of rain. Will
increase PoPs to likely across much of the area overnight.
Given the expected shear and instability, cannot rule out isolated
strong to perhaps low end severe storm across the western forecast
area this evening. However, at the moment, feel this is unlikely.
Lows tonight will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 251 AM EDT Sun Jun 8 2025
Monday Through Thursday.
There will be a few lingering showers Monday morning as the Sunday
night system exits, but otherwise the main focus will be the strong
upper level low that will be moving southeastward Monday into
Tuesday bringing cooler temperatures and drier weather. Models have
been trending to push this system out faster than in previous runs
which will limit the stretch of cooler than normal weather as most
models now bring westerly flow to the area by Tuesday with
moderating temperatures Wednesday and Thursday as high pressure
begins to dominate the local weather.
A convergence zone will develop Wednesday night into Thursday
across northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin which will bring
convection to that area, but locally we're not expecting and impacts
other than some increased cloud cover as the upper level flow will
advect some of the cloud cover southeastward. Daytime highs will
generally remain in the low to mid 80s Wednesday and Thursday with
overnight lows in the upper 50s to low 60s.
Friday And Saturday.
Forecast confidence begins to decreases going Friday and into the
weekend as models are struggling to resolve a weak and slow moving
low pressure system across the Southern Plains and how it develops
as it begins to push eastwards. Precipitation looks likely as this
system interacts with a low pressure system riding along the ridge
in the Northern Plains down into the Midwest, but the timing and
axis of heaviest precipitation remains very uncertain. This wet
pattern looks to persist into the late weekend and early next week
as the jet stream remains well north of the forecast area with
little steering flow to push out the aforementioned low.
&&
.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 643 AM EDT Sun Jun 8 2025
Impacts:
- MVFR/IFR ceilings this morning, then VFR this afternoon
- Additional showers and storms arrive after 00Z Monday with
potential for MVFR
Discussion:
Showers should be east of the sites by valid time. A patchwork of
IFR and MVFR ceilings across the area will persist into mid morning
before becoming mainly MVFR. Will use TEMPOs as needed to indicate
the bouncing between categories.
VFR conditions will then continue into at least early evening.
Scattered showers and isolated storms will move in this evening,
then numerous showers will be around overnight. MVFR conditions are
possible in the rain.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...White
AVIATION...50
Source:
IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 8, 6:44 AM EDT---------------
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