Author Topic: [Alert]JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 8, 11:46 PM EDT  (Read 375 times)

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JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 8, 11:46 PM EDT

632 
FXUS63 KJKL 090346
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1146 PM EDT Sun Jun 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe thunderstorms may occur on Monday, with the
  potential for damaging wind gusts and locally heavy rainfall.

- High temperatures will be near or a little below normal through
  midweek, with warmer readings arriving for late week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1145 PM EDT SUN JUN 8 2025

Skies have largely cleared for the time being. This has allowed
valley fog to start developing, especially where rain occurred
late in the day and this evening. Have updated for fewer clouds
until a modest increase begins later in the night, and have also
tried to be more specific with fog.

UPDATE Issued at 915 PM EDT SUN JUN 8 2025

Showers are exiting southeast out of the forecast area early this
evening and skies are largely clearing, and the forecast has been
updated to reflect these trends.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 326 PM EDT SUN JUN 8 2025

Conditions across eastern Kentucky this afternoon are pleasantly
warm with temperatures ranging through the mid and upper 70s under
partly to mostly cloudy skies. It's also humid, with dewpoints
largely in the upper 60s. A small short wave moving across the
region aloft is bringing height falls to the area and has supported
the development of scattered convection, aided by daytime heating.
While these showers and storms could bring some gusty winds,
generally do not expect them to become severe.

Looking ahead, models are in agreement on a bit of a pattern change
with regards to the upper level flow regime. After the last of the
smaller shortwaves passes the area this afternoon, a larger, more
substantial 500 mb trough begins to push into the region late
tonight through tomorrow. This trough will be support an expansive
surface low moving roughly across the US/Canada border with a
trailing associated cold front. This front is expected to make its
way through eastern Kentucky Monday afternoon into the evening
hours, bringing showers and storms with it. We end the period
Monday night entering a more northwesterly flow behind the trough
as it continues east. Subsequently, the surface low will have
moved further east as well, with the front beyond the state border
by late Monday night/Tuesday morning.

Putting that all together in sensible terms, expect rain to move out
late this evening into tonight as the last small upper level impulse
leaves the region. Temps tonight will still be mild, but a little
cooler than previous nights with lows in the low 60s. Fog is
possible in areas where there's more cloud clearing, especially in
areas where rain fell this afternoon. The drier weather continues
through tomorrow morning but chances for showers and storms increase
in the afternoon and evening as the front moves through the region.
These showers and storms will have decently favorable dynamics to
work with, with increasing mid-level winds as the trough moves over
the region and a small enhancing short wave kicks through, and
enough instability, aided by the convection crossing during peak
afternoon heating hours. So, it is possible for some storms to reach
severe strength. The main hazard is damaging wind gusts, but some
large hail is not out of the question. Some of these storms could
also bring heavy rain. While vertical profile analysis doesn't
show conditions the most ideal for heavy rain/flooding, there's
still a good amount of moisture available and some very isolated
hydro issues could crop up if rain falls over an area that is
already saturated from previous rainfall. Highs are currently
forecast to range from the upper 70s in the north to mid 80s in
the south. However, this partly depends on the speed of the front.
A slower front would allow for those northern areas to warm more,
and a faster front would keep some of the more southern areas
cooler. The front makes its exit going into Monday night, with dry
weather making a return by Tuesday morning. Lows range from the
upper 50s to around 60.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 301 PM EDT SUN JUN 8 2025

A cold front that moved across the area on Monday evening is modeled
to be east of the state by Tuesday morning. In the wake of the
departing cold front, 500-mb height rises are expected, as high
pressure builds into the region. Dry weather will then ensue through
Thursday night.

During the day Thursday, the above mentioned high pressure will
begin to progress southeast of the state, while high pressure
builds north of the Great Lakes, with each area supporting
clockwise flow around them, a surface cold front on the lee side
of the northern high, and a surface warm front on the upwind side
of the southern high will converge on the Bluegrass State Thursday
night through Friday. This will likely lead to increasing cloud
cover heading into the evening Thursday night. Current models are
suggesting a slight chance (20-25% chance) of showers and
thunderstorms for much of the area, with highest chances along
and south of the KY-80/Hal-Rogers Parkway (35-45% chance), Friday
afternoon.

Model and ensemble solutions are in fairly good agreement on height
rises across a large majority of CONUS, with a ridge axis over the
Northern Plains. A shortwave is modeled to  come out of the Upper
Great Lakes region, with an occluded front providing another
chance of showers and thunderstorms, before a cold front passes
through the region Sunday.

Highs will generally be in the mid to upper 80s through the extended
period, with the coolest day being Tuesday, in the upper 70s.
Lows will generally be in the 60s, with coolest evenings being
Tuesday and Wednesday night, in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
ISSUED AT 915 PM EDT SUN JUN 8 2025

The last of the showers were exiting southeast out of the forecast
area at the start of the period, and skies were largely clear
behind the showers. VFR conditions will prevail in most locations
this evening. However, valley fog will likely develop in southeast
and extreme east KY where rain occurred late in the day and early
this evening, bringing IFR or worse conditions. This will
probably affect KLOZ and KSME at times overnight and early Monday
morning. Fog will dissipate Monday morning, allowing VFR
conditions to return area wide. This lasts until late in the day,
at which point showers and thunderstorms should begin to enter the
forecast area from the northwest with sub-VFR conditions.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...HAL

Source: JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 8, 11:46 PM EDT

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