JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 6, 3:49 PM EDT397
FXUS63 KJKL 061949
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
349 PM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Highs near to slightly below normal are expected for today into
the weekend.
- Shower and storm chances stay around through the weekend. Some
strong storms are possible this evening into Saturday night
with the potential for heavy rain and damaging wind gusts.
- A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect until 7 PM EDT this
evening.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 349 PM EDT FRI JUN 6 2025
Strong storms are ongoing across the CWA as we've entered peak
daytime heating. The strongest storms have been entering our area
from the west, aided by strong instability across the region. This
somewhat organized line is expected to move roughly WSW across the
CWA, bringing strong to damaging winds with it, particularly our
more western counties. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for
those areas until 7pm this evening. Our northern and far eastern
counties are the least likely to see the stronger storms from this
line, as it becomes further disconnected from the better support. A
very brief lull is possible behind this line before another round of
more organized convection later this evening into tonight. The main
threat with any of these storms is damaging winds. There is also a
lot of moisture available for these storms to tap into, with PWATs
approaching 2 inches. So, heavy downpours leading to some localized
nuisance or flash flooding are also possible, especially if an
area sees repeated rounds of activity.
Looking ahead, the overall synoptic pattern will remain fairly
consistent through the short-term. The CWA will be sitting in a
flattened, almost quasi-zonal flow pattern as a broad upper level
trough settles over the region. Multiple small waves are set to move
through the broader flow. One of the more prominent waves to
impact the area is expected to traverse the region late this
evening, with another to cross the area Saturday night. At the
surface, a frontal boundary remains situated to our north and
west, serving as a rough focus for showers and storms as the upper
and mid-level energy moves across the area.
Focusing on sensible impacts, expect a short dip in the shower and
storm chances tomorrow morning after tonight's round of convection
makes it through. However, as we enter the afternoon and evening
hours, chances for showers and storms return. Similar to today,
expect more scattered, diurnally aided convection in the afternoon,
before a more organized MCV-like cluster moves through into the
night, supported in part by the short wave mentioned above. There's
still a little bit of uncertainty about how the convection tonight
will impact the atmosphere's ability to destabilize tomorrow, and
the better dynamics will be further to our south, but there's
decent confidence in enough instability and shear for the storms
to tap into that SPC has placed us with another outlook for severe
storms. Most of our area was placed with a Marginal Risk (1 out
of 5), while our southernmost couple of tiers of counties are in a
Slight Risk (2 out of 5). Temperatures will be more mild and
diurnally limited, with lows in the mid to upper 60s and highs
tomorrow in the low 80s.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 530 AM EDT FRI JUN 6 2025
The main adjustments to the NBM starting point again consisted of
including more terrain details for temperatures at night -
somewhat Sunday night but more consistently after Monday night
with a drier air mass moving into the region. Otherwise, the
active weather continues into Tuesday before calmer conditions
likely prevail for mid-week but also on the cool side of the mode
spread.
The previous long term discussion follows:
A trailing cold front passing through the area Saturday will produce
rounds of showers and storms from the afternoon through the evening,
some of which could produce damaging gusty winds, and isolated
instances of high water or flash flooding from thunderstorms. As
such the SPC has the area in a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) for severe
thunderstorms generally along and south of a line from Somerset to
Harlan. There is a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for the remainder
of Eastern Kentucky. The WPC also has a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of
4) for excessive rainfall generally along and south of I-64.
By Sunday, an upper level low over the Mid-Mississippi Valley will
lift and interact with a larger, more potent upper level low over
the Northern Plains. As a result a warm front will slowly progress
across the state, but may struggle to push north through the day.
Areas of showers and storms are anticipated to hug the frontal
boundary through the morning and afternoon, though most areas
will see a tenth or two. Showers look to tapper off overnight as
the overall system progress east of the area.
Monday, two upper level lows over the Northern Plains and Upper
Great Lakes regions look to play out a large scale Fujiwhara Effect,
rotating around each other. The upper level low over the Upper
Great Lakes region will have a trailing cold front passing through
the Ohio and Mississippi Valley during the day. This cold front
will move across Eastern Kentucky through Monday, producing
showers and thunderstorms. While this occurs the upper level low
over the Northern Plains ejects south and east into the Ohio
Valley Monday evening. This is expected to provide a resurgence of
showers and storms through Tuesday morning.
Wednesday, a ridge of high pressure tries to build in across the
Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, however, moisture sneaks in from the
south, with some moisture riding a cold front near or just east of
the area. This could lead to a low end chance of showers or
thundershowers Wednesday.
Thursday, a low over the Ozarks, and Mid-Mississippi Valley will
lift north into the Ohio Valley, while the systems occluded front
slowly lifts across Eastern Kentucky, provided the next chances
for showers.
Temperatures generally remain in the upper 70s to low 80s thorough
the extended, with lows in the mid to upper 60s through the weekend,
and upper 50s to low 60s through next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 213 PM EDT FRI JUN 6 2025
Showers and storms are starting to bubble up across the area this
afternoon. A line of storms is starting to come together and is
expected to travel south and east through the area, most likely
affecting KLOZ and KSME within the next few hours. However, all
TAF sites have a chance to see storms this afternoon into tonight.
MVFR or lower conditions are possible within any storm. After the
convections wanes, low MVFR to IFR ceilings are expected to move
into the area, and only begin to raise near the end of the TAF
period, before a chance for more convection. Winds outside of
storms will be light and generally out of the southwest, before
shifting more westerly tomorrow afternoon. Higher gusts are
possible within any showers or storms.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...GINNICK/GREIF
AVIATION...HAS
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 6, 3:49 PM EDT---------------
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