IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 31, 10:44 PM EDT319
FXUS63 KIND 010244
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1044 PM EDT Sat May 31 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Isolated showers and storms possible southwest this afternoon
- Cool tonight
- Warmer temperatures return for the first half of next week
- Daily storm chances increase for the second half of next week
&&
.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 1043 PM EDT Sat May 31 2025
The long stretch of below normal temperatures continues this weekend
across Central Indiana. Today marks the 12th consecutive day of
below normal temperatures at Indianapolis International Airport...
and the streak is forecast to persist into the first day of
Meteorological Summer.
Weak surface high pressure over Ontario becomes centered over the
Great Lakes region tomorrow with northerly flow keeping a cooler
airmass in place. Stronger ridging and the associated heat remain
over the Central and Western US for now, however, that will shift
eastward into Indiana by Monday. One more day of below normal
temperatures is expected for Indiana before real summer heat arrives
Monday with highs in the 80s.
For tonight, high pressure overhead will lead to optimal conditions
for radiational cooling with clear skies and light winds. A very dry
airmass is also in place, which will allow temperatures to plummet
overnight into the 40s for most locations. There will be about a 10
degree SW-NE gradient across the state with low 50s for far
southwest Indiana, and low to mid 40s for the rest of Central,
Northern, and Eastern Indiana. Would not be surprised to see a few
low lying, wind sheltered areas in North Central or Eastern Indiana
drop to 39 degrees by sunrise... which is very rare for the first
day of June! Abundant sunshine tomorrow and deep mixing will support
highs reaching the mid 70s for much of Central Indiana.
&&
.SHORT TERM (This evening through Sunday)...
Issued at 140 PM EDT Sat May 31 2025
Central Indiana will remain on the west side of an upper trough. The
northwest flow aloft will continue to bring in at times wildfire
smoke from Canada. Upstream observations show little if any impact
at the surface, so will just keep an increased sky cover with no
specific mention of smoke in the forecast.
A front will continue to sag south across the southwestern half of
central Indiana this afternoon. Some weak instability ahead of it
along with some moisture may be enough for isolated convection
into early evening, mainly across the far southwest. Any convection
that does develop will die out quickly once heating fades.
Some mid clouds will continue at times tonight, mainly southwest
where the old front will be decaying. Some models try to generate an
isolated shower along the old boundary as a weak upper impulse rides
through the trough, but feel that forcing/moisture are too low for
any mention of rain. Will continue a dry forecast.
Very dry air across the area will allow temperatures to fall
into the lower 40s across the northeast half or so of the area, with
mid 40s to around 50 elsewhere.
Other than the elevated smoke, little in the way of sky cover is
expected Sunday. High pressure will provide quiet weather, and highs
will be in the 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Saturday)...
Issued at 140 PM EDT Sat May 31 2025
The early part of the week will be dominated by high pressure at the
surface and ridging aloft. This will keep the weather quiet across
central Indiana into Tuesday.
Warm advection on the back side of high pressure to the east will
bring in above normal temperatures to the area. Highs will reach the
upper 80s for portions of central Indiana by Tuesday.
The upper ridge will then get pushed east as a broad upper trough
develops across the central US. A surface cold front will approach
the area mid-week. As the upper flow becomes near parallel to the
front, the front will slow down or stall in the vicinity. With
decent moisture in the area thanks to the southwesterly flow at the
surface, the front will bring chances for rain from mid to late week.
Uncertainty remains in the timing of the best chances for rain,
which will depend on the timing of the front as well as upper
impulses in the flow which will give some support. At the moment,
Thursday looks to have the best combination of forcing, but
confidence remains low.
Temperatures will remain warm ahead of the front on Wednesday, but
readings will return to near or below normal by Friday.
&&
.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 741 PM EDT Sat May 31 2025
Impacts:
- No impacts at surface, wildfire smoke remains aloft
Discussion:
VFR conditions are expected through the period as high pressure
remains the dominant weather influence at the surface. Wind gusts
subside this evening in the 00z-02z timeframe as mixing diminishes.
Expect winds to become light around or under 5 kts overnight between
330-070 deg, therefore keeping VRB05kt in the TAFs. Similar
conditions expected tomorrow, but with lower afternoon wind gusts.
No vis or cig concerns as skies remain mainly clear through the
period.
Wildfire smoke from Canada will continue streaming overhead with
upper level winds out of the northwest. Smoke is not expected to
impact surface visibility and should remain in the upper levels.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CM
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...CM
Source:
IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 31, 10:44 PM EDT---------------
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