IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 31, 1:40 PM EDT419
FXUS63 KIND 311740
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
140 PM EDT Sat May 31 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Isolated showers and storms possible southwest this afternoon
- Cool tonight
- Warmer temperatures return for the first half of next week
- Daily storm chances increase for the second half of next week
&&
.SHORT TERM (This evening through Sunday)...
Issued at 140 PM EDT Sat May 31 2025
Central Indiana will remain on the west side of an upper trough. The
northwest flow aloft will continue to bring in at times wildfire
smoke from Canada. Upstream observations show little if any impact
at the surface, so will just keep an increased sky cover with no
specific mention of smoke in the forecast.
A front will continue to sag south across the southwestern half of
central Indiana this afternoon. Some weak instability ahead of it
along with some moisture may be enough for isolated convection
into early evening, mainly across the far southwest. Any convection
that does develop will die out quickly once heating fades.
Some mid clouds will continue at times tonight, mainly southwest
where the old front will be decaying. Some models try to generate an
isolated shower along the old boundary as a weak upper impulse rides
through the trough, but feel that forcing/moisture are too low for
any mention of rain. Will continue a dry forecast.
Very dry air across the area will allow temperatures to fall
into the lower 40s across the northeast half or so of the area, with
mid 40s to around 50 elsewhere.
Other than the elevated smoke, little in the way of sky cover is
expected Sunday. High pressure will provide quiet weather, and highs
will be in the 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Saturday)...
Issued at 140 PM EDT Sat May 31 2025
The early part of the week will be dominated by high pressure at the
surface and ridging aloft. This will keep the weather quiet across
central Indiana into Tuesday.
Warm advection on the back side of high pressure to the east will
bring in above normal temperatures to the area. Highs will reach the
upper 80s for portions of central Indiana by Tuesday.
The upper ridge will then get pushed east as a broad upper trough
develops across the central US. A surface cold front will approach
the area mid-week. As the upper flow becomes near parallel to the
front, the front will slow down or stall in the vicinity. With
decent moisture in the area thanks to the southwesterly flow at the
surface, the front will bring chances for rain from mid to late week.
Uncertainty remains in the timing of the best chances for rain,
which will depend on the timing of the front as well as upper
impulses in the flow which will give some support. At the moment,
Thursday looks to have the best combination of forcing, but
confidence remains low.
Temperatures will remain warm ahead of the front on Wednesday, but
readings will return to near or below normal by Friday.
&&
.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 100 PM EDT Sat May 31 2025
Impacts:
- Northwest wind gusts up to around 20kt this afternoon
Discussion:
VFR conditions are expected through the period.
Areas of mid cloud will continue to move through most sites from
time to time into tonight. Some scattered cumulus may develop this
afternoon as well, mainly at the southern sites.
Winds will gust up to 20kt this afternoon, then winds will diminish
tonight.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...50
Source:
IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 31, 1:40 PM EDT---------------
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