PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 31, 2:42 AM CDT122
FXUS63 KPAH 310742
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
242 AM CDT Sat May 31 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A Lake Wind Advisory has been issued today from 12 PM CDT/1
PM EDT to 6 PM CDT/7 PM EDT for locations east of the
Mississippi River.
- Small thunderstorm chances, mainly during the daytime hours,
will continue this weekend, along with a warming trend in
temperatures. Gusty winds will be possible with storms that
develop Sunday afternoon.
- Seasonably warm and dry weather is forecast early next week,
but a turn to unsettled weather arrives for the latter half of
next week. Heavy rainfall will be possible from Wednesday
through Friday along with strong storms.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 241 AM CDT Sat May 31 2025
There are a few issues to talk about for the weather this weekend.
The first will be sustained gradient winds around 15 mph with gusts
to around 25 mph with deeper mixing for areas east of the
Mississippi River. This has led to the issuance of yet another Lake
Wind Advisory for this afternoon. Winds will diminish near sunset.
Another issue is with the continued smoke streaming in from the
north/northwest aloft, leading to a hazy sky through at least Sunday
morning. Still not expecting to see many effects at the surface, but
not totally out of the question up near a backdoor frontal boundary
in southwest IN this afternoon and a bit farther south for Sunday
afternoon.
The frontal boundary may touch off some isolated showers and storms
across southwest IN this afternoon; however, the precipitation
coverage will quickly diminish by sunset this evening. That same
frontal boundary will continue to drift southwestward through the
rest of the area becoming more west-northwest to east-southeast
oriented Sunday afternoon, during peak heating. The combination of
the nearby frontal boundary and a shortwave passing just
west/southwest of the area Sunday afternoon will lead to another
increase in showers and thunderstorms across SEMO, west KY and far
southern IL. Instability is forecast to be quite a bit higher Sunday
afternoon during peak heating with guidance pointing toward around
1500-2000 J/kg of MUCAPE across the aforementioned locations. Deep-
layer shear values are marginal for severe weather at or around 20-
25kts. It does look like pulse storms could result in gusty
downburst-type winds, especially with an inverted-V sounding and
quite a bit of dry air in the mid levels (both enhancing colder/more
dense downdrafts). It isn't completely out of the question that an
isolated severe storm could develop with damaging winds as the
primary threat followed by marginally severe hail. The main time
window for that would be between roughly 1pm and 7 pm Sunday with
storms quickly diminishing toward sunset.
Riding builds in for the first half of next week, leading to
increasing temperatures well into the 80s along with a break in the
precipitation. A more unsettled pattern will arrive for the middle
to end of the week as a frontal boundary sets up over or near the
Quad State region as ample moisture is drawn up ahead of the
boundary. The added moisture and instability will lead to several
rounds of showers and storms for that time period. Severe weather
will be possible with each round of storms, but it is too early to
determine exact timing and threat from each round. Ensemble guidance
continues to show PWAT values ahead of and near the boundary around
150-200% of normal, which indicates that very heavy rainfall and
flooding will likely become a concern for the middle to end of the
week.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 621 PM CDT Fri May 30 2025
VFR expected for the next 24 hours. Northwest winds around
10-13 knots will decrease to around 5 to 10 knots from the west
tonight. Winds are expected to pick up again from the northwest
Saturday, between 10-13 knots with gusts of 18-23 knots. Mainly
FEW-SCT high level bases expected for this TAF period.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Lake Wind Advisory from noon today to 6 PM CDT this evening
for ILZ075>078-080>094.
MO...None.
IN...Lake Wind Advisory from noon CDT /1 PM EDT/ today to 6 PM CDT
/7 PM EDT/ this evening for INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...Lake Wind Advisory from noon today to 6 PM CDT this evening
for KYZ001>022.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...KC
AVIATION...AD
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 31, 2:42 AM CDT---------------
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