IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 23, 3:24 AM EDT741
FXUS63 KIND 230724
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
324 AM EDT Fri May 23 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Patchy fog this morning in the Wabash River Valley, dissipating
after sunrise
- Below normal temperatures into next week, mainly highs in the 60s
and lows 45-55 degrees
- Scattered showers for Southern Indiana Sunday and Monday, better
chances for rain Tuesday over the entire area
&&
.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 303 AM EDT Fri May 23 2025
Much drier and relatively warmer conditions finally arrive across
Central Indiana after a very cool and wet week. High pressure
dropping south from Canada moves overhead over the next few days,
becoming the dominant weather influence locally. While temperatures
will be almost 10 degrees warmer than the past couple days, highs
remain below average for this time of year.
Early this morning, satellite imagery shows mainly clear skies over
Central Indiana as high pressure advects in much drier airmass.
ACARs soudings do show a shallow nocturnal setting up keeping any
leftover moisture trapped near the surface. With a weakening
pressure gradient, near calm winds, and clear skies, optiomal
conditions are setting up for radiational cooling and fog
development. Watching the Wabash River Valley and portions of South
Central Indiana for greatest risk of fog development through around
8-9 am this morning. Observations already indicate patchy areas of
fog devleoping with a few locations reporting visiblity down to a
mile at times. Expect fog to expand across this area through the
morning hours before quickly dissapating after sunrise.
Lowered temperatures slightly through the morning hours into the
upper 30s for North Central Indiana and wind sheltered, low lying
areas. Still not expecting frost development though.
For the rest of the day, high pressure will allow for ample sunshine
and surface heating. The Canadian airmass aloft is still quite cool;
however strong surface heating and deep mixing should yielf highs
about 10 degrees warmer than yesterday in the mid to upper 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 324 AM EDT Fri May 23 2025
The long term period starts off on a dry and mild note across
Central Indiana; however wet weather returns next week for portions
of the state.
A broad northwest flow pattern remains in place through Sunday while
a surface high from Canada keeps a relatively cool airmass over the
state for the next several days. This will be short lived as a
trailing longwave upper trough extending from the Canadian Maritimes
west into the northern Plains eventually pivots south into the
region by the middle of next week. The pattern setting up into next
week keeps the cooler weather in place while precipitation chances
increase once again. Longer range guidance doesn't show a
significant warm up back to near normal temperatures until the last
day of May and into early June.
.Saturday and Sunday...
Saturday may be the nicest day of the upcoming extended weekend with
partly sunny skies and mild temperatures in the mid to upper 60s.
Slightly warmer lows expected Saturday night ranging from the mid
40s to lower 50s northeast to southwest as clouds increase from the
west. The increasing clouds are courtesy of subtle waves aloft
riding from the northern Plains within the northwest flow pattern
interacting with low level moisture and a warm front that will
eventually nudge into the lower Ohio Valley by Sunday. Model trends
over the last day or so have been to shift the axis of showers
setting up with this system further to the southwest across the
region, while Central Indiana remains on the cooler, drier side of
the things. While scattered showers will likely be present Sunday
for Southwest portions of Indiana, confidence continues to grow that
the majority of Central Indiana, including the Indy Metro, will
remain dry on Sunday. A cool airmass still remains in place Sunday
and with increasing clouds, highs will likely be stuck in the 60s.
.Next week...
The overall weather pattern begins to shift next week as the upper
jet becomes more west-southwesterly aloft and the storm track lifts
northward into Indiana. Closer to the surface, high pressure begins
to lose its influence over the state as a developing area of low
pressure in the Plains and associated frontal boundaries lift
northward. Low pressure is expected to ride along the warm front
extending over the Ohio Valley and provide perhaps the best
opportunity for more widespread rain and embedded thunderstorms
Monday night through Tuesday. The focus for greatest convective
coverage will again be over southern counties in closest proximity
to the warm front and track of the surface low. By Wednesday,
Indiana will be in the wake of the passing low to the east with
leftover showers and a few storms around.
Confidence decreases mid to late next week and into the following
weekend as a more zonal flow pattern sets up for the middle of the
country with an upper low across the US/Canadian border. Timing
individual waves aloft within the weaker jet aloft is challenging at
this stage. Low level thermals maintain highs in the 60s through
Tuesday with slow improvement into the lower 70s by the tail end of
the 7 day period.
Should the forecast pan out with highs remaining below 70 through
Tuesday here at Indy, this would mark a consecutive string of 8
straight days of sub-70 degree weather extending back to this past
Tuesday 5/20. The last time Indianapolis experienced this for such a
long period of time this late in the Spring was from 5/25 to 6/2 in
1889. The search for a return to more persistent warmth likely is
still 7-8 days out and possibly beyond with 80s likely to return by
early in the week of June 2.
&&
.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 144 AM EDT Fri May 23 2025
Impacts:
- MVFR visibility possible in fog near KLAF/KHUF/KBMG 06-13z
- Winds 10-15 kts with gusts to 20 kts this afternoon
Discussion:
High pressure settling over the state will lead to winds dropping
below 5kt and going calm in a few spots. Optimal conditions for
radiational cooling and fog set up across the Wabash River Valley
through 13z this morning. Fog has already been reported at KLAF and
should become more widespread through the overnight hours, impacting
KHUF and KBMG as well. Vis may briefly drop to IFR levels at times.
Expect fog to quickly dissipate after 13z at all sites.
Afternoon mixing and steep low level lapse rates should result in
increasing WNW winds to 8 to 15 kts this afternoon, with the
strongest winds at KIND and KLAF, under a stronger low level jet.
Gusts to 20 kts are possible at times. Expect winds to drop off
after sunset.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CM
LONG TERM...CM
AVIATION...CM
Source:
IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 23, 3:24 AM EDT---------------
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