ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 22, 1:34 PM EDT925
FXUS61 KILN 221734
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
134 PM EDT Thu May 22 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level low pressure system will shift slowly east across the
Great Lakes today into Friday. This will lead to scattered showers
today and a continuation of below normal temperatures into the
weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Upper low will start to gradually shift to the east today. Mid-level
shortwaves rotating around the low will bring lots of clouds along
with some showers. Radar already shows light shower activity in spots
this morning, then shortwave energy combined with destabilizaton
will promote an increase in coverage during the afternoon. Have
highest PoPs across northern and eastern portions of the CWA, however
some showers may occur as far south as northern Kentucky and the
Tri-State area.
Pressure gradient will be tight enough for gusty winds at times,
possibly up to 25 mph. In addition, today will be rather cool with
high temperatures ranging from the mid 50s north to upper 50s south.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
Shower activity will taper off heading into this evening as we lose
the diurnal component and the better mid level energy rotates off to
the east. Northwest flow aloft will develop through the day on
Friday. With some weak diurnal instability developing, it will tough
to rule out a few spotty showers heading into Friday afternoon.
Temperatures will remain cool with lows tonight in upper 30s to lower
40s and highs on Friday in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Below normal temperatures are expected to continue for much of the
long term time period. Dry conditions are expected to start out the
long term through most of Saturday night.
Precipitation chances will start to move into the region late
Saturday night into Sunday, however decreased precipitation chances
during this time given most model solutions keeping precipitation
south of the region.
This changes on Monday as a low pressure system approaches and
brings higher precipitation chances to the region. Even as the
surface low moves to the east, upper level disturbances will keep
precipitation chances in the forecast through the remainder of the
long term. Instability is rather limited in the long term with any
thunder chances limited to the slight chance and chance categories.
Depending on the track of the low will, will have to monitor trends
for potential heavy rain mention Monday night, however with model
variability at this time, confidence was not high enough to mention
at this time or to increase precipitation chances from the NBM
during that time.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Upper low persists over the Great Lakes. Mid-level shortwave and some
instability will promote scattered showers through the afternoon
hours. MVFR conditions are expected in showers. By evening, showers
are expected to wane and expect any MVFR conditions to improve to
VFR. VFR conditions are expected to prevail tonight into Friday. West
winds may gust aoa 20 kt at times this afternoon, then gusts are
expected to diminish overnight. Northwest winds may gust to 20 kt
again on Thursday.
OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...BPP
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...BPP
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 22, 1:34 PM EDT---------------
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