IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 21, 1:27 AM EDT997
FXUS63 KIWX 210527
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
127 AM EDT Wed May 21 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered to numerous rain showers (40-70%) into tonight and
Wednesday.
- There is a chance (20-30%) for isolated storms late this
afternoon into this evening, mainly south of US 30 in
Indiana.
- Below normal temperatures persist through early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 235 PM EDT Tue May 20 2025
Warm front extending southeast into central IL and southwest IN from
low pressure in IA this afternoon. Ongoing moist isentropic ascent
and weak elevated fgen northeast of the boundary has led to areas of
mainly light to moderate rain so far today. This stratiform
rain already beginning to become more showery as the
aforementioned boundary lifts north and becomes occluded with
low pressure tracking east along it late tonight into
Wednesday.
As for late this afternoon and evening, boundary layer
destabilization and an incoming vort max will allow convection to
increase in coverage near the frontal boundary and warm sector back
in central IL. This activity likely weakens east with a few
thunderstorms expected locally this evening. Best chances for
storms in the cooler air northeast of the boundary will be in
our southwest zones (south of US 30 and west of IN-15 in IN)
late this afternoon into this evening. If upstream convection
can organize into a linear cluster there would be some low end
wind and small hail potential in these areas.
Low-mid level trough axis then elongates from the lower Great Lakes
to the Upper Midwest later tonight through Wednesday night. This
will keep clouds, cool temps, and shower chances around. 12z
guidance has continued trends of more widespread shower activity
mainly focused into areas north of US 30 during this time. Did opt
to lower PoPs a bit over south of US 30 as a result.
Temperatures will gradually moderate, particularly high temps, but
still remain below average for late May late in the week through
early next week. This will be due to troughing and a suppressed
height field lingering in wake of a large merged upper low
pinwheeling around the eastern Great lakes and New England. There
are lingering low chances for a few diurnally driven showers over
mainly eastern zones on Thursday in this regime, with mainly dry
conditions favored for the upcoming weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 127 AM EDT Wed May 21 2025
As the low pressure center moves through the area, the WAA is
replaced by CAA and that allows lowered flight conditions to remain
across the area. As such, CIGs and VISBY securely in IFR dip into
LIFR and approach VLIFR as well with drizzle occurring. Moderation
occurs during the morning at FWA, but with the flow carrying marine
air into the SBN area, models seem to linger the adverse flight
conditions there through the entire taf period. Our gusty winds
today died down this evening, but are expected to reach around 20
kts during the late afternoon. Will handle this with higher
sustained winds to accommodate the gusts though.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Steinwedel
AVIATION...Roller
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 21, 1:27 AM EDT---------------
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