PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 24, 1:53 AM CDT949
FXUS63 KPAH 240653
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
153 AM CDT Sat May 24 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Storm total rainfall through Tuesday may exceed 3 inches in
the SEMO Ozarks, which heightens the risk of localized
flooding.
- The potential for organized strong to severe storms this
weekend into next week remains mainly to our south and west.
- Unseasonably cool temperatures this weekend warm closer to
seasonal norms by the middle of next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 146 AM CDT Sat May 24 2025
The quasi-stationary surface boundary looks like it stays well
to our south this weekend, even as high pressure slides off to
the east. Energy spilling out of the Plains will shoot overtop
the still lingering upper level ridge, promoting mostly elevated
convective chances into our south and west with time. Each round
of showers/potential storms will be tied into these shoots of
energy, with the first such ongoing. We'll see a (relative) pause
with its departure later this afternoon-evening, before chances
pick up again tonight as another offshoot of energy spills in.
By Sunday evening, this muddies up the upper flow and we go more
zonal, which allows the next successive advection of energy to
impact mostly the lower MS Valley but still yields high pops
here. The repeat waves may add up to 3" locally in our Ozark
counties, with lesser amounts north and east from there,
trailing to about 1/4-1/2" in our farthest northeast counties.
As a result of this trend toward the boundary staying south and
west, the stronger storms should trend there too, with the heavy
rain/localized flooding hazard potential isolated mainly to the
Ozarks.
Being on the cool side of the boundary and having the cloud
cover from the successive rounds of pcpn, we'll continue with
below normal temps thru the weekend into Memorial Day. Dew
points do creedp up, into the 50s with some 60F readings
into our AR/TN border counties. Afterward, a warming trend
allows for a return to more seasonable highs in the mid and
upper 70s for the middle and latter portion of the week.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 146 AM CDT Sat May 24 2025
The best chance of rain will be at KCGI/KPAH early today with
warm/moist air overrunning a boundary that is layed out to our
south. Bases should remain VFR, lower at KCGI/KPAH, and higher
devoid of pop mention from KMVN-KEVV-KOWB, at least this
package. Drier/improving conditions may be realized this
afternoon-evening, before another round hits late tonight.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 24, 1:53 AM CDT---------------
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