JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 23, 8:43 AM EDT446
FXUS63 KJKL 231243
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
843 AM EDT Fri May 23 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A cooler air mass is now in place over the area with below
normal temperatures that will last into early next week.
- There will be possibilities for showers or a few thunderstorms
at times, but no heavy rainfall or strong storms are foreseen
through at least Sunday.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 842 AM EDT FRI MAY 23 2025
No major changes to the grids aside from loading in the latest
surface obs and adjusting the trends through the afternoon.
Morning text and radio products have been updated to reflect the
changes. Grids have been saved and sent.
UPDATE Issued at 1230 AM EDT FRI MAY 23 2025
No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just
the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids
and a touch of sprinkles for the next few hours. These minor
adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with
a freshening of the zones, HWO, and SAFs.
UPDATE Issued at 745 PM EDT THU MAY 22 2025
23Z sfc analysis shows high pressure starting to spread into
eastern Kentucky from the northwest. This is keeping the CAA going
on northwest wind of near 10 mph with gusts up to 20 mph. In
addition, thicker clouds are found through the northern half of
the area with a few showers passing through generally along and
north of the Mountain Parkway. Currently, temperatures are
running in the low to mid 50s north to the mid and upper 60s in
the south. Meanwhile, dewpoints are generally in the low to mid
40s. Have updated the forecast mainly to add in the latest obs
and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids along with tweaks to PoPs per
the current radar and CAMs guidance. These minor adjustments have
been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of
the zones and SAFs.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 317 PM EDT THU MAY 22 2025
Current surface analysis across the CONUS is rather active as a few
synoptic features exist. The first and most important one is
currently centered over southern Ontario/southern Quebec. The
surface cold front associated with this feature has moved off to the
east and CAA behind the system is in full effect today. A second
feature is parked over the Ark-La-Tex area with a few more instances
of low pressure off to the west in the Great Basin and northern
California. Lastly, surface high pressure is parked over most of the
central CONUS leading to quiet weather in the center part of the
country. Locally, northwesterly flow, behind the cold front, is
ushering in colder air which is evident by the widespread upper-50s
to lower-60s across the area. Also, a band of lower clouds and
increased winds is evident across the area which is the placement of
the upper-level trough that's pivoting southeast toward the JKL CWA.
Through the remainder of the day, surface high pressure will
continue to build into the area leading to a mostly dry and quiet
day with windy conditions. However, there's a 20 to 40% chance of
showers and isolated thunderstorms along and north of the Mountain
Parkway in association with the trough diving into the CWA. High
temperatures are forecast to climb into the low to mid-60s today
with overnight lows falling into the low to mid-40s.
Surface high pressure will remain in place through the day Friday
with slightly warmer temperatures as highs are forecast to climb
into the mid to upper-60s. Friday night into Saturday morning
overnight lows will continue to remain well below average with lows
falling back into the low to mid-40s.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 317 PM EDT THU MAY 22 2025
The period begins with surface high pressure remaining overhead but
a warm front will begin to approach the area through the day
Saturday. It never quite makes it to the CWA but increased cloud
cover is forecast as the boundary gets closer. Nonetheless, Saturday
is forecast to be dry and mostly cloudy with temperatures climbing
into the upper-60s to low-70s. Through the day Saturday, another
shortwave and associated surface low is forecast to track toward the
Commonwealth. By Sunday morning, increasing PoP is expected through
the as Saturday's warm front gets reabsorbed and lifts to the north
through the CWA. As the boundary lifts north, showers and
thunderstorms will be possible throughout the day Sunday. Quasi-
zonal flow sets up and the pattern largely stagnates. However,
perturbations are forecast to work through the flow which will keep
threats of showers and thunderstorms through the early part of next
week. By Tuesday into Wednesday, an upper-level trough will develop
and drag a surface low through the area with showers and storms but
surface high pressure returns to the area for the end of the
forecast period.
Overall the period will be highlighted by several passing waves
that'll bring increased chances of showers and storms. Temperatures
are forecast to be slightly below normal through much of the period
before warming up for the middle of next week. Highs will climb from
the mid to upper-60s to the mid-70s by Tuesday. Overnight lows will
also be on the same warming trend with lows starting in the upper-
40s to low-50s for the start of the period and warming to near 60 by
the latter half of the forecast period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
ISSUED AT 545 AM EDT FRI MAY 23 2025
KSJS will see MVFR ceilings early this morning, but otherwise all
sites will be VFR through the period. Winds will remain light.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...VORST
SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...JP
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 23, 8:43 AM EDT---------------
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