The Storm Prediction Center issues Day 1 Marginal Convective Risk at May 21, 16:31z for portions of MOB718
WUUS01 KWNS 211632
PTSDY1
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AREAL OUTLINE
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1131 AM CDT WED MAY 21 2025
VALID TIME 211630Z - 221200Z
PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 1
... TORNADO ...
0.02 40988074 40578015 39617943 39147959 39158067 39618129
40488167 40928148 40988074
0.02 33447798 34627769 35897887 36487918 36737882 36187758
36247604 35807398 35697376
&&
... HAIL ...
0.05 36409632 37399734 38239822 38989621 38109418 37219141
36008798 35568801 35238827 34978966 34999184 35359352
35849469 36409632
0.05 30868594 31338414 31358261 31168142 30138128 29798164
29708321 29918484 30138567 30438614 30868594
0.05 27670010 27519883 26819737 25249672
0.05 32857831 34927844 35937894 36727945 36997923 37237877
37317797 36997625 36357406
0.05 38617956 38107986 38008016 38088071 38498147 38938195
39688235 40588296 40978314 41348276 41498193 41498113
41108027 39997946 39467913 38617956
0.05 29069392 29939344 30639124 31018938 30918895 30258878
29598836
0.15 36429481 36799542 37409521 37369403 36299093 35939009
35329052 35399173 35889317 36429481
0.15 36017554 35667533 35377546 34957617 35017688 35487715
36047697 36227629 36017554
&&
... WIND ...
0.05 33037839 34157839 34897845 36117906 36797944 37037922
36817803 36827566 36277385
0.05 27649993 27499879 26799738 25499681
0.05 35359356 36049511 36409630 37039696 40010026 41850380
42500385 42680248 41199856 39379599 38089409 37139113
36508937 35648920 34988978 35009183 35359356
0.05 41398268 41428116 41108024 39577912 38197974 38008012
38078073 38798185 39618231 40578298 40918313 41398268
0.05 29678751 29978742 30148712 31238460 31608223 31478053
99999999 29568054 28838380
0.15 30878384 30958356 31128196 30728150 30078171 29828238
29858314 30128404 30238422 30708435 30878384
&&
CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 1
... CATEGORICAL ...
SLGT 30958356 31128196 30728150 30078171 29828238 29858314
30128404 30238422 30708435 30958356
SLGT 36047697 36227629 36017554 35667533 35377546 34957617
35017688 35487715 36047697
SLGT 37409521 37369403 36299093 35939009 35329052 35399173
36429481 36799542 37409521
MRGL 27670010 27519883 26819737 25579685
MRGL 29069392 29939344 30639124 31018938 30918895 30258878
29598836
MRGL 29568054 28878364 99999999 29678751 29978742 30608606
30868594 31238460 31608223 31478053
MRGL 41398268 41498193 41498113 41108024 39577912 38197974
38008012 38078073 38798185 39638232 40578298 40978314
41398268
MRGL 33227839 34897845 36797944 37037922 37237877 37317797
36997625 36767545
MRGL 42680248 41199856 38089409 37139113 36008798 35568801
35238827 34978966 34999184 35359356 35849469 36409632
40010026 41850380 42500385 42680248
TSTM 28920403 29980279 30230075 29649948 28649849 28579758
29479610 29879517 30369317 31109068 31358905 31818707
32198552 32688112 33797985 35027942 37778300 40548556
41638554 42638417 43458158 99999999 43068006 42517862
41797784 39877673 39537595 39677512 40517394 40907297
40997212 40707096 99999999 49470574 47840473 45080167
42639910 41099662 39979473 38729279 37568992 36468706
35908579 35168553 34588628 34248792 34499098 35299481
37779984 41650590 42980773 44090790 44880612 45420560
46220627 47760910 48461136 48411290 48231382 48281649
48471707 49441828
&&
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE
MGR 25 ESE AYS 20 NE JAX 25 WNW SGJ 10 NW GNV 15 N CTY 25 SE TLH 15
SSE TLH 20 N TLH 15 ESE MGR.
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW
ECG ECG 40 ESE ECG 35 NNE HSE 15 NE HSE 35 WSW HSE 10 ESE EWN 30 N
EWN 45 WSW ECG.
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE
CNU 30 ENE JLN 10 N ARG 30 ENE JBR 35 SSE JBR 25 S BVX 15 SSW GMJ 35
E BVO 25 SE CNU.
THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WNW
LRD 40 E LRD 60 N BRO 45 SE BRO.
THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 ESE
GLS 20 SW LCH 55 NE LFT 30 S PIB 35 NNE GPT 20 ESE GPT 65 ENE BVE.
THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE
DAB 60 SSW CTY ...CONT... 60 SSW PNS 35 SSW PNS 30 ESE CEW 35 E CEW
30 SW ABY 25 NNE AYS 60 ENE SSI.
THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW
MFD CLE 30 NW YNG 25 ESE YNG 45 E MGW 45 NE SSU 20 NE SSU 30 NE BKW
35 NNW CRW 30 N UNI 30 SW MFD 30 E FDY 40 NNW MFD.
THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE
CRE 25 ESE FAY 15 NNW DAN 20 S LYH 25 ESE LYH 40 WSW RIC ORF 45 ESE
ORF.
THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE
CDR 20 NW GRI 55 SSW SZL 45 NW POF 50 SW CKV 50 E MKL 45 SE MKL 20
ESE MEM 30 NE LIT 25 WNW RUE 30 WSW FYV 30 WNW TUL 20 SE MCK 10 WSW
BFF 35 NNE TOR 35 ESE CDR.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 100 S MRF 35 W 6R6 60
N DRT 25 NW HDO 45 ENE COT 15 NNE NIR 45 WNW LBX 15 NNE HOU 15 N LCH
15 WSW MCB 20 ESE PIB 25 N GZH 30 S AUO 40 N SAV 30 SSW FLO 15 S SOP
25 NE JKL 20 NNW MIE 40 E SBN 25 ESE LAN 75 ESE BAX ...CONT... 70 W
BUF 30 S BUF 40 E BFD 25 SSE CXY 20 WSW ILG 15 SSE PHL 10 SW JFK 10
NE ISP 25 S GON 45 SE BID ...CONT... 95 N OLF 25 WNW SDY 65 SSE Y22
25 WNW ONL 20 NNE LNK 15 NE STJ 30 WSW COU 30 NW CGI 25 ESE CKV 40 W
CSV 20 WNW CHA 30 E HSV 40 SSW MSL 60 ENE PBF 20 NNW RKR DDC 25 NNW
LAR 35 E RIW 10 NNE WRL 45 E SHR 10 W 4BQ 25 SW MLS 50 NNE LWT 50
ESE CTB 30 WSW CTB 20 ESE GPI 65 NE GEG 60 NNE GEG 90 NE OMK.
Source:
The Storm Prediction Center issues Day 1 Marginal Convective Risk at May 21, 16:31z for portions of MOB---------------
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