The Storm Prediction Center issues Day 1 Marginal Convective Risk at May 20, 12:39z for portions of IWX252
WUUS01 KWNS 201240
PTSDY1
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AREAL OUTLINE
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0739 AM CDT TUE MAY 20 2025
VALID TIME 201300Z - 211200Z
PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 1
... TORNADO ...
0.02 41389058 41658984 41718840 41658788 40748649 39358360
38688175 38068089 37218072 36047982 35837835 35927673
35647600 34967568 33187900 33297938 33547981 34268097
34708224 34298293 32808368 32328440 31558896 31089048
30759286 31049352 31889384 33109372 36539206 39769132
40619124 41389058
0.05 39709062 40729032 41178979 41268899 40508755 39998648
39138434 38328202 38028163 37538153 36738183 35798258
34728359 33568427 32808558 32238932 32139117 33159229
35789177 38289103 39709062
0.10 33559156 35009128 36159045 37158963 37658846 37908688
38058548 38138392 37818254 37528236 37328277 36718331
35548419 34338484 33598598 33008839 32898963 33129049
33559156
SIGN 34559105 35189062 36158975 36878863 37248783 37468684
37428605 37228534 36198483 35358501 34458564 33818649
33338805 33168909 33218976 33259042 33569091 34559105
&&
... HAIL ...
0.05 38829212 40149218 41189166 41559094 41828963 41688788
40838653 39318329 38338084 37678024 36917905 35827890
34397857 33917866 33157921 32737981 34198204 33908351
32938460 32408569 32238697 31698891 30659206 30049368
29919470 30329492 33269388 35429291 36469276 37229247
38829212
0.15 39519062 40329100 41069051 41258973 41278899 40848773
39858618 39168530 38618434 38128279 37808178 37548146
36978178 36588277 35408394 34738451 33318610 32998683
31809112 31489243 31639320 32369333 33439328 35729190
38209112 39519062
0.30 35069130 36059063 37178967 37448887 37558795 37278783
36788807 36018871 34678978 33759091 33559156 33699207
35069130
SIGN 36509028 37248963 37498872 37578793 37188783 36678814
34918959 33729081 33519137 33559192 33849201 35179133
35959066 36509028
&&
... WIND ...
0.05 41718980 41768814 41028650 39738418 38358080 37127911
36477812 35647599 34967568 33187900 33407996 33768133
33468249 32758334 32428419 32208534 31628843 31079052
30589232 30409340 30809401 31739387 32849384 36329215
38449159 40739154 41539078 41718980
0.15 35809177 37709075 38809067 39739038 40249017 40808871
40848760 40248659 39418522 38658367 37838151 37238121
35768087 35198102 34238210 33308362 32788557 32238964
31499175 31559248 31929277 33459224 34649200 35809177
0.30 34249087 35049092 35729072 37038952 37758772 38268589
38038405 37638239 37008235 36038348 35038389 34258416
33588456 33048598 32828966 33159066 34249087
0.45 36058412 34488463 33668586 33388691 33608828 34248856
34618846 36308739 36968700 37378662 37538595 37598477
37528423 37298373 36058412
&&
CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 1
... CATEGORICAL ...
ENH 35069130 36059063 37178967 37658846 37798758 38268589
38108458 38138392 37818254 37638239 37008235 36038348
35038389 34258415 33608456 33048594 32848967 33139066
33699207 35069130
SLGT 33439328 35729190 38929085 39589065 40329100 41069051
41258973 41278899 40848760 40248659 39848609 38328202
38028163 37238121 35768087 35198102 34258211 33328357
32808558 32218963 31499177 31489243 31639320 32369333
33439328
MRGL 33269388 35429291 36469276 37229247 38829212 40149218
41189166 41559094 41828963 41768814 41688788 41028650
39918456 38338084 37878016 36477811 35637598 34957568
33207899 33237915 32737981 33758137 33468249 32758334
32328440 31628843 30659205 30049368 29919470 30329492
33269388
TSTM 49540681 48190642 46600586 45350481 44070382 42690336
41940352 41640461 41630582 41850705 42200753 42090906
41421077 41301256 41841341 42701321 43651262 45211311
46021260 46681088 46960989 47480934 48390964 49241104
99999999 49631399 47861586 48001850 49422071 99999999
31527985 31978200 31878268 31118443 30888683 30778850
29739304 29569503 28739732 28159862 28469928 29029951
30079830 31909642 34309562 36779540 39399542 40769563
42019567 42909524 43599465 43959397 44269163 44119011
43568837 42658631 42008436 41808109 41378022 39827880
38347687 37077525
&&
THERE IS A ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSE
BVX 15 N JBR CGI 45 NNE PAH 15 S EVV 10 WNW SDF LEX 40 E LEX 40 S
HTS 50 S HTS 35 N TRI 30 ENE TYS 55 S TYS 45 NNE ATL 10 WSW ATL 35 S
ANB 50 SSE GWO 30 SE GLH 20 W LLQ 50 SSE BVX.
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW
ELD 15 W BVX 30 WNW STL 40 SE UIN 30 NNE UIN 25 S MLI 40 N PIA 15
WSW MMO 45 N DNV 20 SE LAF 15 NE IND 25 W CRW 25 S CRW BLF 30 E HKY
CLT 40 ESE AND 45 N MCN 15 NNW AUO 50 W MEI 30 WSW HEZ 10 NW ESF 10
SW IER 30 ESE SHV 30 WNW ELD.
THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE
TXK 15 NE RUE 25 NW FLP 40 SSW TBN COU 20 E IRK 40 NW BRL 25 WNW MLI
40 SW RFD 40 NE MMO 45 ENE MMO 40 SE VPZ 20 W DAY 40 E CRW 10 NE SSU
15 SSW AVC 35 NW HSE 20 S HSE 35 S CRE 35 SSW CRE 15 SE CHS 20 SW
CAE 30 WNW AGS 20 E MCN 35 ESE CSG 50 SSE MEI 30 N LFT 20 ENE BPT 40
ENE HOU 45 SE UTS 15 SSE TXK.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 90 N GGW 10 E GGW 10
N MLS 30 E 4BQ 40 W RAP 15 SW CDR BFF 35 NNE CYS 20 NNW LAR 10 ENE
RWL 35 NNW RWL 35 N RKS 15 NE EVW 30 WNW OGD 50 SSE BYI 30 ENE BYI
30 WNW IDA 30 W DLN BTM 55 WNW 3HT 20 WSW LWT 30 NNE LWT 10 SSE HVR
75 NE CTB ...CONT... 90 N GPI 30 NW 3TH 50 WNW GEG 85 NW OMK
...CONT... 90 ESE SAV 25 SE VDI 30 SW VDI 30 SSW ABY 20 WNW CEW 15
WNW MOB 30 SSE LCH 15 ESE HOU 25 WSW VCT 40 ESE COT COT 30 SW HDO 30
NNW BAZ 10 S CRS 40 SSE MLC 35 E BVO 25 NNE TOP 10 W SDA 15 W DNS 20
SSW SPW 10 WSW FRM 20 S MKT 30 NW LSE 15 NNE VOK 30 SSE OSH 35 S MKG
20 SSE JXN 45 NNW YNG 20 W FKL 40 SW AOO 25 W NHK 55 ENE ORF.
Source:
The Storm Prediction Center issues Day 1 Marginal Convective Risk at May 20, 12:39z for portions of IWX---------------
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