MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 18, 12:19 PM CDT ...New Aviation...251
FXUS64 KMOB 181719
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1219 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025
...New Aviation...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 314 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025
Now through Monday night...
Zonal flow will persist through the next 48 hours as we remain on
the northern periphery of an upper level high. This setup will
help keep mostly dry conditions across the area Sunday and Monday
as subsidence from the upper ridge will likely squash most
storms. However, a subtle boundary will be draped across central
Alabama with ongoing convection progressing along the boundary
this morning. Depending on the evolution of the morning convection
and the location of the boundary, an isolated storm cannot be
ruled out north of highway 84 this afternoon. Any storm that
might develop could pose a hail and damaging wind threat. However,
if morning convection persists long enough into the day then re-
development along the boundary will be limited at best and the
remainder of the area will remain dry. By Monday, shortwave
ridging will build into the area leading to stronger subsidence
and a dry forecast. High temperatures will remain warm with highs
into the 90s once again.
Patchy fog will also be possible this morning and Monday morning.
With weak surface winds and subsidence leading to clear nights
optimal for radiational cooling, some patchy fog should be
expected with isolated instances of dense fog possible. The best
chances of fog look to be across areas north of interstate 10.
BB-8
Upper troughing progresses across the region Tuesday becoming
generally westerly to northwesterly flow late week into the weekend
on the backside of the trough. A cold front pushes across the area
late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning bringing a cooler, drier
airmass to round out the week into the weekend. Showers and
thunderstorms will be probable across the area Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning, with best coverage along and east of the I-65
corridor during the morning hours Wednesday. Rain chances gradually
taper into the afternoon Wednesday as the front begins to exit the
area. Beyond this, the forecast remains dry as surface high pressure
settles in across the eastern CONUS. Temperatures will be warm to
start in the upper 80's to lower 90's Tuesday into Wednesday, but
cool off quite a bit into the lower to middle 80's to round out the
work week before warming back up into the weekend. Overnight lows
also cool substantially going from lower to middle 70's Tuesday
night to upper 50's and lower 60's rounding out the week. A Moderate
risk of rip currents will exist Tuesday into Wednesday. MM/25
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025
VFR conditions prevail over the area through this evening, then
patchy fog with IFR/MVFR conditions is anticipated to develop
over much of the area overnight. The fog dissipates Monday morning
leaving VFR conditions. South to southwest winds 5-10 knots
diminish by early this evening, then a southerly flow near 10
knots develops Monday morning. /29
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 314 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025
A light to at times moderate onshore flow is expected through
tuesday before a front moves through the area on Wednesday.
Moderate offshore flow will develop by the end of the week as the
front pushes offshore. Outside of any thunderstorms on Tuesday
night into Wednesday, no hazards are expected.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 70 88 73 89 73 89 65 87 / 0 0 0 10 10 40 10 10
Pensacola 73 85 75 86 77 88 69 86 / 0 0 0 10 10 40 10 10
Destin 74 86 76 86 78 88 71 87 / 0 0 0 0 10 40 10 10
Evergreen 67 93 68 92 70 90 61 87 / 0 0 0 10 30 40 0 10
Waynesboro 69 92 71 92 69 89 62 84 / 10 0 0 10 40 30 0 10
Camden 68 91 69 91 69 87 62 82 / 10 0 0 10 50 30 0 0
Crestview 67 91 68 90 72 91 62 89 / 0 0 0 10 10 60 10 10
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 18, 12:19 PM CDT ...New Aviation...---------------
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