PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 12, 6:07 PM CDT369
FXUS63 KPAH 122307
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
607 PM CDT Mon May 12 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Afternoon showers and thunderstorms expected on Tuesday, with
best chances east of the Mississippi River.
- Isolated to widely scattered showers and storms return
Thursday and Friday. Severe weather is possible both days.
- On and off chances of showers and storms continue into the
weekend.
- A warming trend can be expected through the week, with the
warmest temperatures expected on Thursday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 327 PM CDT Mon May 12 2025
The combination of diffluent flow aloft and a lifting surface
front has lead to scattered to numerous showers this morning and
into the afternoon. Expecting decreasing chances of
showers/storms this evening and overnight as better forcing
moves away from the region. An upper low will remain in place
nearly directly overhead Tuesday. Plentiful mid layer PVA and
surface convergence should result in afternoon showers and
thunderstorms with isolated to scattered coverage expected. This
activity would mainly be across the eastern half of the forecast
area. Severe threat is low with any of this activity. Ridging
builds across the region on Wednesday resulting in mostly dry
conditions. Substantial warm air advection will occur starting
the notable warming trend that lasts the rest of the week. High
temperatures should climb into the low to mid 80's before upper
80's to near 90 on Thursday.
The beginning of a more active pattern begins on Thursday. A
mid/upper level trough digs into the plains Thursday resulting
in a deepening area of low pressure that is expected to track
across Iowa and Minnesota. This low will bring a cold front
into the area Thursday afternoon and evening. The warm sector
airmass across the region will be highly unstable with very
steep lapse rates aloft. Planviews and forecast soundings reveal
a very strong capping inversion in place through much of the
afternoon. Breaking this cap would likely need to come from
strong forcing aloft or strong frontal convergence which we
don't really see until later in the evening. At this point
anything that does develop would likely be fairly isolated and
rooted along the incoming front. All hazards would be expected
with any thunderstorms that are able to develop.
The front looks to make its way to near the KY/TN state line
and eventually stalling out before lifting back north as a warm
front. Another mid level impulse will move across the region
which combined with a favorable location along the 250mb jet
core would likely result in plenty of vertical forcing. There is
still uncertainty in how far north this front lifts but the
strongly unstable environment along with increasing shear from
the impulse would mean increasing chances for severe weather.
Guidance seems to be favoring a linear complex of storms
developing within a region of increasing moisture flux and
pressure falls and quickly advancing east. Just where that
actually occurs is still in question. This will be something to
watch carefully over the next few days.
Not many changes to the weekend period. A few weak disturbances
appear to move through the region which would bring on and off
storm chances for this period. Temperatures will remain warm
with highs in the mid 80's.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 557 PM CDT Mon May 12 2025
A few showers and small chance for a thunderstorm will be
possible this evening at each of the TAF sites. Confidence is
low enough in coverage and timing to leave out of the TAF sites
with this update. Additional scattered showers and storms may
develop later in the afternoon on Tuesday. Guidance continues to
hint at lower ceilings and visibility with fog formation over
SEMO into far western KY. Added fog for PAH/CGI/MVN overnight
into Tuesday morning.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...AD
AVIATION...KC
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 12, 6:07 PM CDT---------------
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