ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 10, 2:52 AM EDT375
FXUS61 KILN 100652
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
252 AM EDT Sat May 10 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
As high pressure builds into he region through the weekend, skies
will remain mostly sunny with a gradual warming trend. A chance of
showers and thunderstorms will return by Monday as an upper level low
pressure system moves through the Ohio Valley. Several rounds of
precipitation are expected through the week, with above normal
temperatures expected by the end of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
High pressure to dominate with weather again today, with light and
variable winds, though low level return flow and plenty of sun will
bring a warming trend to the region, with seasonal high temperatures.
A weak cold front currently over the central Great Lakes will
approach the mid Ohio Valley through the day, but by mid/late
afternoon as it enters the ILN forecast area, it weakens and the
already moisture lacking frontal boundary will work into the
dry/benign conditions and generally wash out. Mostly sunny skies
through today, though some high mostly thin clouds near and south of
the Ohio River.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
As high pressure lingers into tonight and Sunday, upper level return
flow will bring continued moderating overnight low temperatures
closer to seasonal normals in the upper 40s to lower 50s. An upper
level low over the lower MS and TN Valleys will bring slowly
increasing high level clouds mainly along and south of the Ohio River
during the day on Sunday, as well as the continued warming trend
bringing high temperatures in the mid to upper 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
On Sunday evening, an upper low will be centered over Louisiana,
with plentiful moisture in the southeastern CONUS. Over the Ohio
Valley, an area of surface high pressure will be departing to the
northeast. From Monday through Wednesday, the upper low initially in
the deep south will also move east, weakening into an open wave as
it does, but providing the main influence for weather over the Ohio
Valley for the first half of the week.
Models have trended a little faster with the onset of precipitation
on Monday, so chance PoPs will be used as early as the morning
hours. By afternoon, precipitation will be much more likely,
especially in the southern portions of the forecast area. Weak
instability may be enough for some embedded thunderstorms as well.
Tuesday may have the greatest chance for precipitation, with the
center of the wave just upstream of the ILN CWA, which will be in a
good position for forcing at the peak of the diurnal cycle. Finally,
chances will diminish on Wednesday, but some precipitation will
still be possible for ending from west to east. Overall, looking at
potential hazards, some heavy rain may be the greatest concern.
Precipitable water values will be well over an inch, with generally
weak flow through the atmosphere. The severe threat looks fairly
low, with weak shear, poor lapse rates, and marginal instability
overall.
Temperatures on Monday and Tuesday will be near normal in the 70s,
but a warming trend will begin as the system moves away on
Wednesday. By Thursday and Friday, highs are expected to be well
into the 80s, at least 10 degrees above normal.
While confidence is low in forecast specifics for the end of next
week, the overall upper pattern will become a little more active,
with well-positioned theta-e advection indicating that convection
may become more likely. This forecast will carry some PoPs on both
Thursday and Friday. If the broader weather pattern plays out as
currently advertised, it is a pattern that in theory could support
some risk of severe weather toward the end of next week.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR mostly clear conditions through the TAF period. While some light
valley fog may bring MVFR visibility to KLUK, expecting it to be
fairly short lived and dissipating near/after 12z. Variable winds
less than 5 kts through the period.
OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible at times Monday afternoon into
Wednesday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for OHZ045-046-055-056-
064-065-073-074-082.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JDR
NEAR TERM...JDR
SHORT TERM...JDR
LONG TERM...Hatzos
AVIATION...JDR
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 10, 2:52 AM EDT---------------
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