PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 10, 9:08 AM EDT962
FXUS61 KPBZ 101308
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
908 AM EDT Sat May 10 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure will bring sunny and milder weather today.
Another stronger high will build over New York Sunday and
continue the sunny weather with even warmer temperatures
approaching 10 degrees above normal. A slow moving low will move
up the Appalachians Monday and bring unsettled weather to the
Upper Ohio River Valley Tuesday through Thursday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Sheltered locations that radiate well are in low-mid 30s with
frost first thing this morning
- Dry conditions and seasonal temperatures expected today
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Let the frost advisory expire at 12Z. Most if not all of our
counties had at least one reporting site with a temperature of
36F or colder. Wall to wall sunshine expected the balance of the
day. No changes needed for the update.
Previous discussion follows:
Typical wind-sheltered locations and deeper valleys are
cold/frosty this morning. So far has fallen to 24F at Canaan
Valley NWR (DY007). CWOP just NW of Waynesburg in Greene County
down to 32F. Moraine State Park RAWS site in Butler County at
33F. Quite a few locations in the middle 30s, but the ridge tops
are still above 40F and may not drop much more. Will let frost
advisory expire at 8 am.
Upper Low over New York City expected to cross southern New
England early this morning before heading into Atlantic. 500 mb
heights have risen about 110 meters overnight and should keep
rising over forecast area another 40 meters during the day.
850 mb temps should warm about 6C to roughly 10C today over
area, about 8C warmer than yesterday. For KPIT, that equates to
a potential increase of 14F or roughly 77F. Given that scenario
and the typical sunny day cold bias for NBM, went 3F above NBM
mean MaxT. That results in mid 70s for KPIT. With deeper mixing,
also went with NBM 10th percentile Td from 15-23z today.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Quiet conditions with moderating temperatures Sunday and
Monday
- Highs 5 to 10F above normal Sunday and Monday
----------------------------------------------------------------
With an upper low meandering around Louisiana, heights over
forecast area continue to rise and reach mid 5800s at 500 mb.
850 mb temps warm a bit to +12C, suggesting another 4F of
temperature increases, so went between NBM mean and 90th
percentile (upper 70s at KPIT).
Upper Low lifts toward Memphis area on Monday, and 500 mb
heights and 850 mb temps don't change much so expect another day
of 75-80F on Monday. Clouds will be increasing over the south
during the day.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Next rain chances return Monday night through Thursday
- Potential for strong to severe thunderstorms Friday
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Global models and ensembles in decent agreement in lifting
upper low to somewhere in the southern IL to KY area on
Tuesday, with 20-40 meter height falls over forecast area and
upper flow turning from SE to southerly. Precipitable water
values increase nearly 1" about 1.4" by Monday evening and
Tuesday.
Slow progression of upper trough expected on Wednesday and it
should be from MI to VA/NC area.
While there has been some uncertainty as upper trough moves out
Thursday on the amount of upper ridging in its wake, there is
more agreement on Thursday being less active ahead of the next
strong trough coming into Midwest area. Due to lingering
moisture and instability, thunderstorms are possible as
temperatures hit the middle 80s.
With the south to southeast flow, the heavier precipitation
appears to be on the east side of Appalachians. Tuesday through
Thursday 72 hour PQPF 25th percentile ranges from 0.10-0.20" in
northwest part of forecast area to about 0.50" down in Tucker
County WV. 75th percentile is roughly 0.60" northwest and
1.00-1.50" over the higher elevations in the southeast.
Upper trough moves into Great Lakes area Friday and flattens the
eastern ridge, allowing a band of stronger WSW mid level flow to
push up the Ohio River Valley. CSU MLP has been consistent with
a swath of severe probabilities from OK to the Mid Atlantic
region and those have been steadily increasing from day to day.
NBM SBCAPE shown to be about 2,000 j/kg with 500 mb flow of 40+
knots, plenty to support severe weather.
850 mb temps increase to about +16C, but with cloud cover
uncertainty not sure about 90F highs but certainly mid to upper
80s and decent humidity.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR continues early Saturday with clear skies and light wind. Cirrus
gradually increases this afternoon and tonight. Daytime mixing can
bring NW gusts to around 15KTs.
Outlook... Broad surface high pressure will ensure general VFR
conditions through the weekend and into Monday. Restrictions are
then likely to return with rain Tuesday/Wednesday as an upper trough
slides across the region.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Craven
NEAR TERM...Craven/McMullen
SHORT TERM...Craven
LONG TERM...Craven
AVIATION...Rackley/AK
Source:
PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 10, 9:08 AM EDT---------------
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