CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 10, 3:37 PM EDT632
FXUS61 KCLE 101937
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
337 PM EDT Sat May 10 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A ridge continues to nose into our region from the Lower Missouri
Valley before a moisture-starved cold front moves southward through
our region early this evening through about midnight tonight. Behind
the cold front, a ridge affects our region through Monday morning as
the parent high pressure center moves from northern Ontario toward
Atlantic waters near Nantucket. The ridge then begins to exit
eastward during Monday afternoon and evening as a low wobbles
northward from the Lower Mississippi Valley to near the Lower Ohio
Valley.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Aloft, cyclonic NW'erly flow and embedded, weak, and subtle
shortwave disturbances affect our region through this evening. The
NW'erly flow becomes anticyclonic during the predawn hours of Sunday
morning in response to a ridge that will build from the northern
Great Plains. At the surface, a ridge continues to nose into our CWA
from the Lower MO Valley before a cold front moves S'ward through
northern OH and NW PA early this evening through about midnight
tonight. Behind the front, another ridge builds from northern ON.
Fair weather persists due to stabilizing subsidence accompanying the
ridges and limited low-level moisture along/ahead of the cold front.
Mainly clear sky and weak low-level CAA behind the cold front are
expected to contribute to lows reaching the lower 40's to lower 50's
around daybreak Sunday.
Aloft, NW'erly flow becomes variable on Sunday and then becomes
primarily SE'erly to S'erly Sunday night as the aforementioned ridge
shifts E'ward to the southern Great Lakes and vicinity, and becomes
absorbed by another ridge over/near the Virginias and Carolinas.
Elsewhere, a nearly vertically-stacked low at the surface and aloft
continues to meander in the Lower MS Valley. At the surface, the
post-cold front ridge continues to affect our region as the parent
high pressure center moves SE'ward from northern ON to Atlantic
waters near Nantucket. Fair weather persists on Sunday through
Sunday night as stabilizing subsidence continues to impact northern
OH and NW PA.
NE'erly to E'erly surface winds associated with the clockwise,
outward circulation of the post-cold front surface ridge will result
in persistent onshore flow from relatively-cold Lakes Erie and
Ontario on Sunday. Accordingly, despite abundant sunshine, cooler
highs in mainly the upper 50's to upper 60's are expected north of
roughly the U.S. Route 30 corridor. Farther south, highs mainly in
the lower to mid 70's are expected. Sunday night will be somewhat
milder with lows expected to reach the upper 40's to mid 50's due to
the following reasons: low-level WAA along the western flank of the
aforementioned surface high pressure center begins to impact our
CWA; primarily mid/upper-level cloud cover increases from the south
in response to moistening isentropic ascent aloft associated with
the nearly vertically-stacked low's warm conveyor belt.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
By Monday, high pressure will depart to the east as an upper-level
low approaches from the southwest. Precipitation chances will be on
the rise as daytime scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected. Confidence is high in the broader synoptic-conditions, but
limited coverage will likely prevent PoPs from getting very high
(currently in the 30-50% range Monday and Tuesday). Temperatures in
the 70s are expected, with a south to southeast flow likely
preventing much inland progression of a lake breeze.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The upper-level low devolves into a trough as it weakens and moves
northeast across the area on Wednesday and then departs to the east
on Thursday. There will be higher PoPs on Wednesday, though still
generally expecting scattered showers and thunderstorms (just with
slightly greater coverage).
An upper-level trough/low builds into the central CONUS on Thursday,
moving across the Great Lakes region on Friday and Saturday.
Confidence is increasing that our forecast area will be solidly
located within the warm sector of this system, with high
temperatures in the 80s expected on Thursday and Friday.
By Saturday, temperatures moderate into the 70s, with precipitation
chances remaining in the forecast, more so due to the uncertainty in
synoptic conditions.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z Saturday THROUGH Thursday/...
VFR expected through 18Z/Sun. At the surface, a ridge continues
to nose into our region from the Lower MO Valley before a
moisture-starved cold front drifts generally S'ward across
northern OH and NW PA between ~21Z/Sat and ~04Z/Sun. Behind the
front, another ridge builds from northern ON through 18Z/Sun.
Ahead of the front, our regional surface winds trend SW'erly to
W'erly around 5 to 10 knots. These winds should gust up to ~20
knots at times, especially at/near KERI. Behind the front, surface
winds around 5 to 10 knots veer quickly to NW'erly and then to
NE'erly. Dry weather is expected through the TAF period due to
stabilizing subsidence (i.e. sinking airflow) accompanying the
ridges and limited moisture, including low-level moisture, along
and ahead of the cold front.
Outlook...VFR and dry weather are expected through Monday
morning. Periodic rain showers and thunderstorms with non-VFR
are forecast this Monday afternoon through Wednesday.
&&
.MARINE...
A cold front moves south across Lake Erie this evening, shortly
before sunset. A sharp wind shift is expected from southwest winds
around 5-10 knots to northerly winds of 15 to 20 knots. The
strongest winds are expected in the western basin for a few hours,
with the cold front crossing Lake Erie between 7-8 PM and waves
briefly to 3-4 feet. A small craft advisory was issued for 7 PM to 1
AM this evening to cover this short duration increase of winds and
waves.
From a winds/waves perspective on Lake Erie, conditions should be
relatively quiet. There will be enough wind most of the week for
conditions to be a bit choppy at times (~10 knots or so), especially
during the afternoon hours when lake breeze winds are expected.
However, no additional small craft advisories are expected.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Jaszka
NEAR TERM...Jaszka
SHORT TERM...Saunders
LONG TERM...Saunders
AVIATION...Jaszka
MARINE...Saunders
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 10, 3:37 PM EDT---------------
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