PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 9, 3:52 PM CDT552
FXUS63 KPAH 092052
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
352 PM CDT Fri May 9 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry and cooler conditions trend closer to normal on Sunday.
- Shower and thunderstorm chances return Sunday evening into
Tuesday, lingering into Wednesday mainly southwest Indiana.
- Above normal temperatures near 90 degrees are forecast
Thursday and Friday along with a significant increase in
humidity.
- A risk for severe weather may return late next week into the
following weekend.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 348 PM CDT Fri May 9 2025
Updated Aviation discussion for 00Z TAF Issuance.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 105 PM CDT Fri May 9 2025
A 1030 mb sfc high pressure will build across the Great Lakes region
this weekend providing dry northerly flow. Temperatures on Saturday
will still be a few degrees below normal in the low 70s before
trending more seasonable on Sunday into the mid to upper 70s. After
a chilly night in the upper 40s, lows trend warmer into the 50s
Saturday night and near 60 Sunday night.
The LREF is in decent agreement in holding off pcpn chances until
Sunday evening for most of the FA as a 500 mb low currently over the
lower Mississippi River Valley slowly drifts north over the weekend
with moisture. The greater risk associated with diurnally driven
scattered showers and thunderstorms holds off until Monday and
Tuesday. Thermo profiles support about 750 J/kg of MLCAPE, but are
very meager with 20 kts or less of effective bulk shear. More of a
summer like pulse type storm mode is favored, inhibiting the concern
for organized strong storms.
While shower and storm chances are progged to linger on Wednesday
mainly over southwest Indiana, high temperatures trend back into the
80s as a ridge axis builds into the FA. Thursday will be dry, hot
and more humid with dewpoints rising above 70 degrees. In fact, the
NAEFS ESAT indicates 850 mb temps in the 99th percentile above 20C.
This translate to high temperatures in the upper 80s to near 90,
with NBM probabilities over 50% for reaching the low 90s both
Thursday and Friday. As a broad 500 mb trough digs down from the
northern Plains on Friday, there will be the potential for some
convection with 0-3km theta-e rising to 340K. The CFSv2, CIPS, and
CSU all continue to indicate probabilities of severe weather late
next week into the following weekend, but there still remains a
large spread in how model guidance is handling different synoptic
features.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 348 PM CDT Fri May 9 2025
The terminals will be situated between high pressure to the
north and west, and low pressure to the south and east. The low
will sit and slowly spin its elements across the lower MS
Valley. Its outer reaches will be a canopy of high clouds that
gradually invades our skies over the back half of the forecast,
so BKN-OVC250 CIGS are expected to develop here over the next
24 hours but particularly tmrw.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 9, 3:52 PM CDT---------------
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