CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 8, 1:57 PM EDT684
FXUS61 KCLE 081757
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
157 PM EDT Thu May 8 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will drop across the southern Great Lakes and Upper
Ohio Valley region this morning followed by strong Canadian
high pressure building across the Great Lakes this afternoon
through the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
12:30 PM Update...
Slowed down the southward progression of PoPs this afternoon
since the cold front and associated band of showers has been
slower to move through. Also slowed down the exit of cloud
cover, but still expect mostly sunny skies everywhere by mid
evening.
9:30 AM Update...
Significantly increased PoPs this morning for the line of
showers currently dropping across Lake Erie. This is occurring
along a cold frontal boundary tied to a strong mid/upper
shortwave trough digging into the central and eastern Great
Lakes. Strong mid-level PVA and the entrance region of a 55-60
knot upper jet is leading to fairly strong frontogenetic forcing
along the front which is driving this solid line of showers, so
went with likely PoPs dropping from north to south the rest of
the morning. Radar shows some small 40-50 dBZ echoes where
embedded convection is occurring. Current mesoanalysis only
shows up to 100 joules of MUCAPE (all elevated) along with CIN
over the chilly Lake Erie, so nothing organized is expected.
However, it is just enough to lead to a few rumbles of thunder
as the line moves southward. Expect fairly rapid clearing behind
the line this afternoon as Canadian high pressure builds
southward into the central Great Lakes. N to NE winds will gust
to 20-25 knots near the lakeshore behind the front, and this
combined with cold air advection will keep temps quite cool
today despite the increasing sunshine this afternoon.
630 am update...
There were no forecast adjustments needed with this early
morning update.
Previous discussion...
The weather will be relatively quiet over the next couple of
days and cool. A cold front is pushing southward across the
region this morning. There will be a chance for a few widely
scattered showers post frontal this morning through about
midday. Otherwise, skies will be mostly cloudy today with
clearing from north to south late this afternoon into the
evening. High pressure from southern Ontario and Quebec will
build southward across the area today and tonight. High
temperatures will cool today in the middle 50s to the lower 60s.
Clear skies and lighter winds will allow for temperatures to
drop into the upper 30s inland and lower 40s closer to the
lakeshore. We will have to watch for some patchy frost possible
overnight, especially for the usual colder spots of NEOH and
NWPA. High pressure will still be in control of the weather on
Friday with sunny skies. High temperatures on Friday will be in
the upper 50s to lower 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Dry weather is favored for the weekend. An upper low will take shape
over the northeastern CONUS Friday night into Saturday before
exiting to the east on Saturday. An upper ridge will attempt to
build into the region throughout the period, however a cutoff low
over the lower Mississippi Valley will slow the progress of the
ridge through Sunday. An upper trough and weak surface cold front
will cross the CWA Saturday night, but generally expect a dry
frontal passage given limited moisture ahead of the front. A few
deterministic guidance members including the GFS and NAM indicate
weakening showers moving southeast towards the area Saturday night,
but maintained a dry forecast since it appears that precip will
diminish before reaching the local area.
Chilly overnight lows are still expected Friday night with
widespread upper 30s to lower 40s expected areawide. A few spots in
the higher terrain of inland NE OH/NW PA may make a run for mid-30s
for a few hours Friday night into early Saturday. Radiational
cooling should be pretty efficient given clear skies, but winds may
remain a touch elevated which would prevent the development of
widespread frost. Either way, patchy to areas of frost are in the
forecast late Friday into early Saturday. Temps will slowly rebound
throughout the period with 60s and 70s anticipated Saturday and
widespread 70s expected across the area for Sunday. The only
exception for 70s on Sunday will locations near and just inland from
Lake Erie where temps may remain in the upper 60s due to onshore
flow Sunday afternoon.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The aforementioned cutoff low over the Mississippi Valley will lift
north into the Ohio Valley early next week and possibly weaken as it
drifts east by mid-week. The low will usher moisture into the region
for the long term period with rain chances returning Monday night
and continuing through the remainder of the long term period. PoPs
(and thunderstorm chances) are highest during peak diurnal
heating/instability Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday afternoon. High
temps will most likely be in the 70s throughout the period with
above normal lows expected each night.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z Thursday THROUGH Tuesday/...
A band of showers will continue to slowly progress south this
afternoon as a cold front crosses the region. The rain is done
at KTOL and KERI, but expect showers to affect KFDY and KCLE for
another hour or so and KMFD, KCAK, and KYNG through late
afternoon. Mainly MVFR cigs (occasional IFR) will gradually
improve from north to south behind the front this afternoon and
evening, with mainly clear skies and VFR conditions areawide by
21-23Z. High pressure centered over the northern Great Lakes
tonight and Friday will then maintain mostly clear skies and VFR
conditions.
NE winds of 10-15 knots this afternoon will occasionally gust to
20-25 knots before decreasing to 5-10 knots tonight and Friday.
Outlook...VFR is expected through Monday.
&&
.MARINE...
Northeast winds 10 to 20 knots are anticipated this morning and
expect similar flow through early Friday afternoon. Waves of 2 to 4
feet are likely in the nearshore waters and waves may build to a
touch above 4 feet from roughly The Islands to Wickliffe through
this afternoon. Opted against a Small Craft Advisory given the
marginal conditions, but may need to hoist a brief headline if
observed/forecast winds and/or waves trend higher. Winds will become
variable and diminish to 10 knots or less by Friday evening before
flow becomes southwesterly on Saturday. The passage of a cold front
will allow winds to shift to the north/northeast and increase to
about 15 knots in the western basin Saturday night with northeast
winds to 10 to 15 knots continuing through Sunday. By Monday, winds
will become more easterly/southeasterly.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...77
NEAR TERM...Garuckas/77
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...Garuckas
MARINE...15
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 8, 1:57 PM EDT---------------
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