IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 7, 9:45 AM EDT249
FXUS63 KIND 071345
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
945 AM EDT Wed May 7 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Isolated showers possible today, with thunderstorms possible on
Thursday.
- Briefly cooler Thursday and Friday, then warmer temperatures
return this weekend into early next week with plenty of sun
- Rain chances return Monday into Tuesday
&&
.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 945 AM EDT Wed May 7 2025
Weak high pressure and a narrow ridge aloft were across the region
this morning but mid and high level cloud cover was expanding into
the forecast area from the upper low across the southern Plains with
an area of showers over southern Illinois and the lower Ohio Valley.
1330Z temperatures had already risen into the 60s over much of
central Indiana.
Most of the ongoing forecast is in good shape for the rest of the
day as residual low level dry air and ridging aloft keep the region
warm and dry. Will need to monitor the area of showers lifting
northeast across western Kentucky and southern Illinois. Hi-res
guidance this morning is not capturing ongoing showers well at all
but do expect the precip to diminish as it approaches the lower
Wabash Valley with drier air and subsidence present over the region.
For now have left a dry forecast in the southwest but will monitor
trends and adjust as needed. Any rainfall would be very light.
The southern Plains upper low will gradually become absorbed by the
parent upper level trough to our northeast by late day with a broad
zone of near surface layer convergence lifting into the southern
half of the area. This may be enough to generate a few showers late
day into the evening.
Even with a fair amount of mid and high level cloud cover for much
of the day...temperatures should have no trouble warming into the
mid and upper 70s. Zone and grid forecasts out.
&&
.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 303 AM EDT Wed May 7 2025
An mid/upper-level low sits to our northeast and another is taking
shape to our southwest. With Indiana currently between systems,
subsidence has lead to clear skies and relatively light winds. A
cirrus shield from the low to our southwest is gradually
overspreading the area, however, and most locations will see a thin
cloud cover by morning. Skies should remain clear long enough to
potentially promote some patchy fog formation early this morning.
Despite increasing cloud cover, temperatures should rise well into
the 70s today for most. Some locations may even push 80 degrees,
though this depends a bit on how thick the cirrus deck is. Right
now, it looks to be thick enough to prevent widespread 80 degree
temps from occurring. A cold front gradually advancing southward
will arrive late this afternoon causing winds to turn northwesterly
and eventually northeasterly overnight. Highs may be 10 degrees
cooler on Thursday due to this front.
It is interesting to note that there may be enough instability this
afternoon for a few showers to develop. Guidance seems to focus this
activity along a surface convergence zone separating northeasterly
flow associated with the low to our northeast, and southerly flow
associated with the one approaching from the southwest. Model
soundings show very shallow CAPE profiles with little flow in the
effective layer. As such, any showers should be short-lived and
likely too weak to generate lightning. Activity should begin to
initiate around peak heating (late afternoon/early evening).
Shower activity may continue into Wednesday night as the mid/upper
low arrives from the southwest. Moisture advection ahead of the
system should allow instability to gradually increase as well, at
least to the point where thunder may start being possible. Overall,
forcing and instability look weak, and shear appears low...so severe
thunderstorms are not currently expected. However, storm motion
looks rather slow...and there is a possibility that a few locations
see heavy rainfall between 1-2 inches. This may lead to a very
localized minor flooding threat. Greatest likelihood of
thunderstorms Wednesday night into Thursday is over southern Indiana.
&&
.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 303 AM EDT Wed May 7 2025
Quiet weather begins the long range as a split flow pattern takes
hold over the CONUS. Temperatures start off cool under persistent
northeasterly surface flow, but gradually rise as the mid/upper low
featured in the short term gradually drifts southward. Surface high
pressure and ridging aloft (within the northern jet) should promote
quiet conditions with large diurnal curves. Temperatures warm into
the 70s again by Friday and Saturday, and potentially into the 80s
Sunday.
The mid/upper low, to our south by this point, is modeled to drift
northward early next week...once again bringing active weather to
Indiana. Given the feature's weak surface reflection, moisture
advection northward looks to be modest at best. Together with
weak/broad forcing, precipitation will be scattered in nature. Some
members of guidance show CAPE values as high as 1200 J/Kg by Monday
with a deeply saturated profile, so precipitation will likely be
convective with the potential for heavy downpours. The slow-moving
system begins to depart mid next week.
Day 8-14: ensemble guidance is hinting at a shift away from
blocking/cut-off slow-moving lows to a more dynamic and progressive
flow pattern. As of right now, ensembles show more troughing out
west with east coast ridging. Such a pattern favors warmer-than-
average conditions with near-normal precipitation.
&&
.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 650 AM EDT Wed May 7 2025
Impacts:
-Patchy fog at KBMG
-Very isolated showers possible around 00z
-Showers possible after about 09z Thursday
Discussion:
VFR conditions expected through today. MVFR conditions possible
Thursday with rain showers and lower ceilings.
Winds initially out of the WSW should gradually become northwesterly
as a front approaches from the north. Winds may go light and
variable as the front slows down this afternoon. Eventually, this
boundary will progress southwestward leading to winds becoming
northeasterly at all terminals tonight.
Guidance is hinting at the possibility of isolated showers
developing during the late afternoon hours (around 00z). These,
should they occur, will be short-lived and relatively weak. Thunder
is not currently expected even if showers develop.
There is a better chance of showers arriving after about 09z
Thursday, mainly across southern Indiana. HUF and BMG have the best
chance of a shower Thursday morning. There is also a low chance of
thunder with Thursday's shower activity.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Ryan
SHORT TERM...Eckhoff
LONG TERM...Eckhoff
AVIATION...Eckhoff
Source:
IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 7, 9:45 AM EDT---------------
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