MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 22, 6:20 PM CDT ...New Aviation...039
FXUS64 KMOB 222320
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
620 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025
...New Aviation...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 343 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025
Tonight through Wednesday night...
A general, light southwesterly to westerly flow pattern aloft
will persist through Wednesday night as an upper-level ridge
remains in place over the western Atlantic. Several weak
shortwaves are expected to move within this flow pattern aloft
through the period. Forcing from these shortwaves, along with
strong destabilization, will allow for scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms to develop during the afternoon and
evening hours for both today and Wednesday. Highest chances are
for interior areas west of I-65 both days. Not anticipating any
organized severe weather with these storms due to a lack of shear,
although one or two stronger storms, capable of producing gusty
winds/small hail cannot be ruled out. Heavy rainfall will also be
a concern due to the slow motion of these storms, so I can't rule
out one or two localized instances of flooding. Expecting
convective coverage to decrease both days during the late evening
and overnight hours due to the loss of daytime heating. Highs on
Wednesday will top out in the low to mid 80s, and lows tonight and
Wednesday night will only drop into the 60s. Patchy to areas of
fog, some of which could be dense, may once again develop during
the early morning hours prior to sunrise. Best probabilities for
dense fog look to be over the western Florida Panhandle and over
south central Alabama. We will monitor trends closely over the
coming hours to see if a Dense Fog Advisory will become necessary
for tonight. A Moderate Risk of rip currents continues through the
period. /96
Thursday through Tuesday...
We are expecting a generally diurnal pattern through late this
week, through the weekend, and into the early part of next week.
Isolated to scattered PoPs will be possible, mainly over northern
portions of the forecast area, during the afternoon hours through
Saturday near the remnants of an old weakening frontal boundary.
By Sunday and into the early part of next week, deep layer ridging
becomes more entrenched across our area, with little to no rain
chances expected those days. It will be rather warm, with daytime
highs Thursday and Friday in the mid to upper 80s, and then in the
upper 80s and lower 90s Saturday through Tuesday (hottest day
appears to be on Sunday, with most of the interior in the likely
in the lower 90s). Nighttime lows will range from lower 60s over
most interior locations to upper 60s and perhaps even a few lower
70s closer to and along the coast Thursday night through Monday
night. A Moderate Rip Current Risk will persist through the
weekend and into the early part of next week. DS/12
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 608 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025
Mostly VFR conditions will persist with some isolated showers
lingering across interior areas of southeastern Mississippi.
Showers and storms should diminish over the next few hours. Low
ceilings and fog will likely develop mainly north of I-10 tonight
with IFR to LIFR conditions developing. Fog should remain well
north of TAF sites, except KMOB where some patchy fog could
develop. Fog quickly mixes out during the morning with VFR
conditions returning. Winds will remain light out of the south.
BB-8
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 343 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025
A light to moderate southeasterly to southerly flow pattern will
persist through the week and into the weekend. /96
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 65 83 64 83 64 84 64 87 / 10 40 0 10 0 0 0 10
Pensacola 68 80 66 80 66 81 66 83 / 10 20 0 0 0 0 0 10
Destin 68 79 67 81 68 81 69 83 / 0 20 0 0 0 0 0 10
Evergreen 62 85 61 87 60 88 60 89 / 20 50 10 10 0 10 10 10
Waynesboro 63 82 62 85 62 88 62 90 / 30 60 20 30 0 20 10 20
Camden 62 83 61 84 61 86 61 87 / 30 60 20 20 10 10 10 20
Crestview 62 86 59 87 60 87 61 90 / 10 20 0 10 0 10 0 10
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 22, 6:20 PM CDT ...New Aviation...---------------
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